Please don't start generic flamewars on HN or impugn people who take an opposing view to yours. Both these vectors lead to tedious, unenlightening threads.
There's plenty of rage to go around on literally every divisive topic, and it's not the place we want discussions to come from here.
"Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents."
"Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive."
There are other users in this very thread using inflammatory language to attack this paper and those who find the paper compelling. One user says, quote: “You just can't reason with the anti-LLM group.”
In light of this, why was my comment - which was in large part a reaction to the behavior of the users described above - the only one called out here?
Please don't post generated comments or AI-edited comments to HN [1]. You're welcome here, but only if you write in your own voice [2]. The community feels strongly about this.
[All: please don't post unsubstantive comments to HN. You don't have to like $Company or $Person, but when the banned accounts are posting more thoughtfully than the rest, that's... bad.]
maybe it's the histrionics? Thse personalities are inevitably inflating their own balloons in order to cash out, but that doesn't mean the reality is these companies are worthless. The downvotes come from comments like "OpenAI is trying to dump their garbage". At best that's a silly thing to say. We can argue "fair market value" but it's not zero.
What is the fair market value of an AI company that loses >$10B/year? Of course they have assets that could be stripped and sold for profit but public creditors come last. It's also going to be no where near their private valuation.
because its not accurate. they're milking the market. not dumping on the market.
they're only (sic) going for 75 billion. with an evaluation in the trillion mark.
This is just more speculative investment. you'll see this again in another year or so with a bigger evaluation on it... it's how the modern economy now "works".
On one hand I do take some enjoyment of suckers being fleeced. But on other hand I know who this all will benefit so I really can't do that.
As whole I find that valuation just insane, but seemingly if you only offer tiny enough slice with enough hype it might bump prices to something that really make no sense at all...
The suckers being fleeced are every pension fund in the world. They're demanding the S&P includes them faster to force ETF owners to buy in before the price tanks.
For most people their talent and expertise does not involve investing. That's why pensions and 401ks exist and why S&P/nasdaq have rules to protect the public.
You may wish it were not so, you may find it inelegant and infuriating and unfair, but it is a fact that retail investors nearly all underperform the market over a long enough time horizon. Maybe you are built different but for most of us it is very rational to take the market return for “free”.
Do understand, though, that market return will struggle to achieve 9% for the coming decades. A 9% annualised return would put the US stock market at 50% of world GDP in 10 years (edit: 20) and something like 90% of world GDP in 30 years (edit: 50 years). Cost of goods, and your customer's money, both have to come out of global GDP too.
(The current value of around 25% of global GDP doesn't even include the 1.75 trillion SpaceX which alone would be another almost 1%...)
ETF expense ratios are small but still mean retail will underperform anyway. It's an unfortunate situation all around.
Yeah I am not taking a position on how the market will do in the future. Just saying that active investing will underperform passive unless you are one of the few market participants who actually has alpha.
Why are they being fleeced? If people didn't want to buy SpaceX they could buy some other ETF that doesn't include it. If there's enough of a demand I'm sure ETFs will be offered which include all the big indexed stocks except SpaceX.
Yes Americans will definitely move their 401k over this /s
Its fleecing because it basically takes everybody's money and gives it to support musk's money loser xai. SpaceX net profit 8 billion per year (previous years much less) and Xai was net losing 1.5 billion per quarter.
Unless you literally have nothing, YOU are one of the millions being fleeced. Pensions & retirement funds, any index fund that comes remotely close to technology, any equity you own in a venture in tech, any industry that via very short linkages is connected. Good luck avoiding this.
You only get "fleeced" if the stock crashes. If it's that terrible of a stock then the price will be low. As far as SpaceX goes, I think there are far riskier companies with little prospect of doing well.
They are only selling a small % of the shares in the IPO and subsequent weeks.
With a tiny float the price will almost certainly go up as a limited number of enthusiastic investors buy in. The plan is to then line up the lockup expirations so they sell into the index re-balance, a ton of new non-discretionary demand to match the new supply.
1.) All the image generation models will do that, xAI is just the one that caught flak for it
2.) SpaceX made $16B in profit last year, despite its enormous R&D costs and is on track for $20B this year, despite the losses from AI. People still wise to invest in Google despite their AI business still being a huge loss
> 1.) All the image generation models will do that, xAI is just the one that caught flak for it
Perhaps. But that's a huge undersell. "just the one that caught flak"? No. The one with nearly zero guardrails. Where users could trivially create underage porn, bestiality, etc., using prompts that you could put into any other AI and just say "does this image generation prompt seem likely to create legally problematic content?"
Not that I approve of that, but when image generation was hot and new, the insane amount of refusals I got from the major ones for apparently no reason, exacerabated by the general slowness, quotas and inherent trial and error workflow has completely soured me on them.
4 different levels to unpack: Literal IPO question, Epstein cover-up (gov. won't just do it), aliens (X-Files) cover-up, and finally the Elon-Epstein connection (email files thread to host him at SpaceX).
Parent commenter is making a joke about the fact that, in the title "SpaceX Files to Go Public", the word "Files" could be read as either a noun or a verb.
1. Elon is a genius, a real world Tony Stark.
2. How dare you! You're just jealous!
3. Ok, regardless, he's done more to advance EVe and space travel than anyone else alive.
4. Oh God, he's going to cripple US development of EVs and rockets, isn't he?
5. Eh, Mars was never happening in my lifetime anyway.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember stage 1 being maybe 2011. There were plenty of Musk critics back then, as there are now, but they seemed to have been completely wrong on pretty much everything. I remember people saying he was a charlatan whose technology would never work and even if it did it would never get mainstream market penetration. I feel like you would have smugly chuckled if anyone told you the following things that are true:
1.) Tesla cars will be ubiquitous on American roads
2.) The best selling model of car globally would be a Tesla
3.) Most cars would be made in the US, yet still be price competitive with foreign competition
4.) SpaceX rockets would be re-used multiple times per week
5.) SpaceX's launch business is highly profitable despite lowering prices to less than 10% of what they used to be
6.) SpaceX launches more mass to orbit than the rest of the world combined
1. Tesla has sold ~2.5-3M cars since 2017 in the US. There’s more than 200M cars on the road in the country. Ford has sold more F series trucks in the last 4 years than Teslas have been sold ever.
2. The only reason Model Y is the best selling car in the world is because 3/4 of the sales come from the US and Tesla only sells one model of SUV. Other brands sell many different variants and multiple models in the same category across the world.
3. Teslas are not at all competitive in other markets. BYD is eating their lunch.
4-6. Yes, but the global market for space launches is projected to barely touch $30B by 2030. Global competition for this market is only getting fiercer with multiple US startups, India, China and more recently France.
Now let’s talk about the failures.
1. Nueralink
2. FSD
3. Roadster
4. Cybertruck
5. Hyperloop
6. $2T in Doge cuts
7. Robotaxi
8. Starship
9. Tesla Semi
10. 4680 battery
11. Boring company tunnels
12. Bots that were going to disappear on Twitter
The list is very long when you actually include all the data points.
Tesla was founded by different guys, Musk just forced them out.
SpaceX is indeed very cool, but not because of Musk. He just put his name on everything that might have been cool, even if dumb (remember Hyperloop? I always wondered on what grounds PR teams associated Hyperloop with Musk, as the idea was very old, and he didn't give it any money -- what relation he even had?)
I've heard from SpaceX insiders that they don't like the guy very much. SpaceXers do cool stuff, and then Mr. Musk comes in and makes everyone believe it's he himself done all that.
If you're not getting downvoted at least some of the time on HN you're doing something wrong. I've caught plenty of downvotes myself for arguing that Mars was never going to happen and is just a recruiting tactic for SpaceX to hire idealistic young engineers and pay them sub-market wages because the dream of Mars is part of their compensation.
All the hardware they've actually invested in, including Starship, is in fact foremost for launching satellites into Earth orbit. Starship in particular is optimized for this.
Self-driving is a thing. Full self-driving, commonly known as "level 5 autonomy", has been claimed for over a decade. These claims have been made so many times it has a dedicated Wikipedia page!
But those levels are kind of bullshit. If a car is autonomously driving but needs an attentive driver in the seat for legal reasons you're stuck at what, level 2? Even if you never actually need to override/intervene?
Teslas running the latest hardware (manufactured 2023+) and software are actually nearly there, IMO. I used it for two months and never needed to intervene. It's not perfect yet but I believe it actually drives better than most people now.
However, the millions of Teslas on the road with older hardware are absolutely useless in comparison where you will need to intervene a lot. The latest FSD software only works on the latest hardware so these older cars are stuck on either old FSD versions (which are proven to be bad) or get slimmed down versions to fit lower specs (which we know wont be as good). It's unsafe and they really should disable it for all of the older vehicles and issue refunds for people who paid for FSD.
Elon will announce roborockets that pick you up and fly you to Mars in under 12 hours while you hypersleep in the ExaShip. Production starts definitely next year.
I mean for some reason this was downvoted, and your answer is sarcastic, but my question was genuine. As far as I can tell, SpaceX's business model is doing government contracts, and selling space internet, and they had serious cashflow issues before, I mean building Starship has brought them close to bankruptcy multiple times.
They would need a very good story to sell to investors.
There's plenty of rage to go around on literally every divisive topic, and it's not the place we want discussions to come from here.
"Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents."
"Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive."
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