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> it just shows yet again that the emperor has no clothes

Which emperor, specifically?


Sorry, at the heart of this is that the Commander in Chief and Secretary of War are idiots. It's not clear how any of this situation would be any different if America had a dramatically higher production capacity.

These are orthogonal problems.

Getting into this war was stupid.

Being unable to win it is also pretty bad.


Clausewitz would say they are the same: the stupid war is the continuation of stupid politics by other means. The objectives are unclear, which prevents them being achieved.

These are the same problem. Getting into this war was stupid because it's virtually impossible to win it.

Correction: Hegseth is a crusader. He is a super zealous religious fanatic who very much wants to destroy as many Muslims as possible. He has a crusades tattoo and openly talks about killing heathens in his WEEKLY SERMON. He might be an idiot alcoholic, but he very much knows what he is doing.

> Correction: Hegseth is a crusader. [...SNIP...] He might be an idiot alcoholic, but he very much knows what he is doing.

That sound like he knows what he wants to do, but that's not the same as knowing what he is doing.


Indeed.

One of the contracting things I turned down was someone who knew what they wanted to do was make Uber for aircraft.

I turned it down because they clearly didn't know enough about this goal to fill an elevator pitch, let alone a slide deck, and I think many of the current US Secretary of XYZ leaders are similarly unaware of how vast a chasm lay between what they wanted to do and a specific, measurable, realistic, and time-constrained plan to actually achieve anything.


English language ambiguity problem. "Knows what he is doing" has two potential meanings: it could mean competence, or it could mean clear intent. I think OP meant the latter.

> he very much knows what he is doing

Nothing about how this war is going suggests he has any idea what he’s doing as SecWar


I mean he's even not that great at his chosen profession which is a television news media personality, although I am sure he knows what he is apparently trying to do, in that regard.

There was a great quote in an article I read from here recently along the lines of: Microsoft have invested enough in OpenAI that it's not their problem -- not Sam Altman's -- if it doesn't work out.

They've only invested $13b in OpenAI. They spent $68b on Activision Blizzard.

I don't buy that quote. I think Microsoft is actually under huge threat from AI companies replacing their revenue stream.


> that company pays for my house, my car, my dental service and whatnot, and what's left I take as a employee salary ... I pay local tax for that salary

Until you get audited by your local tax authority who rules that all of that is disguised salary, or the Estonian tax authority says that that's technically (taxable) profit being paid to the director.

If you're currently doing this, I suggest throwing yourself at the mercy of your local tax authority with the help of a lawyer and an accountant, as it's possible they'll show some leniency if you go to them first and not add penalty fines in addition to needing to back-pay the tax and late payment fines.

You've got to get up pretty early in the morning to fool The Revenue.


In this case they're also banning female athletes with DSDs, which will affect quite a lot more athletes, including all three of the medalists for the women's 800m in Rio[0]

0: https://www.olympics.com/en/news/semenya-niyonsaba-wambui-wh...


> In this case they're also banning female athletes with DSDs, which will affect quite a lot more athletes, including all three of the medalists for the women's 800m in Rio[0]

This makes it seem that women without DSD need not bother competing.


Anyone who's not genetically gifted need not bother competing, though. Would you ban basketball players above a certain height?

> Would you ban basketball players above a certain height?

Well, women's basketball did ban males from competing for, well, ever, and no one bat an eye.

Like I said in another thread on this story, it's not men who are complaining that women are unfairly competing, it's women who are complaining that men are unfairly competing.


> They discussed philosophy, psychology, science and the universe...

I mean, I've discussed all those things with an LLM, mostly because I'm able to interactively narrow in on the specific bits I don't understand, and I've found it to be great for that.

The rest ... yes, definitely psychosis.


On its own, yes, of course. But this is coming from a guy who was hospitalized three times for mania, so when someone with that history says "we were discussing the universe" I take it in a very particular way.

An important part of using an LLM is to verify it's output, because they are very prone to just make stuff up. If you focus on what you don't understand, how do you verify the output?

They are prone to making stuff up, but less prone to sticking to it on interrogation (although obviously that does happen, and Gemini used to be terrible for this). I find restating my new understanding of something to a new context window to be a valuable part of the learning process, and most likely saves me here, esp as I have memories switched off.

I use LLMs a lot for medical advice and will normally take a bunch of second opinions from clean windows and other LLMs. Hasn’t killed me yet!


> desire for self-preservation and intrinsic motivation

I’d be curious about how you’re showing they lack either of those


They don't try to prevent you from deleting them and they don't output anything unless prompted.

"they don't output anything unless prompted"

Unprompted they're not unlike a human sleeping or in a coma. Those states don't preclude consciousness in other states.


That's besides the point though.

You can bootstrap some of it. I wrote the following for solving this ~9 years ago. Kinda wish I'd done the PhD now: https://github.com/pjlsergeant/multimedia-trust-and-certific...

I did this for a small recruitment niche, and made good money. I burned out for various reasons, so when the niche (Perl programming) dried up, I didn't have the energy in the tank to push into other niches, but I think there's a _lot_ of meat still on that bone. I'll almost certainly have another crack at it if I can find the right tech-recruiter partner.

I would be interested to know who shorted oil in the hours before the purported negotiations post on Truth Social, and who then went long on it in shortly after the price readjusted and before the Iranians denied these negotiations.

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