Have you heard of the Sucker Effect? Your gains come solely from the those who made the wrong bet. There is no inherent value generation in the prediction markets unlike the stock markets. Yes, there is money to be made, but at a net loss to the society, so many would not consider these bets "opportunities" but rather "gambling".
There is no value generation in trading stocks either beyond IPO, as stocks are then simply second-hand markets and can be completely irrational. The main value is just like the lottery : entertainment, excitment.
There is value beyond IPO- companies continue to sell ("issue") shares on the public market as a way of generating cash. They also buy back shares when with excess cash, usually when the market value is low but sometimes, irrationally IMO, when it is high. They also use this as an incentive-backed compensation pool. The relative value of these is debatable, but I don't think it is correct that post-IPO public shares are just traded between third-parties making short-term bets. Happy to be corrected.
Define "net loss to the society." Society is just a group of individuals. If my counter-party was a democratic aide hedging that they wouldn't have a job come January, was it a real loss for them? The money I've earned on prediction markets has certainly allowed me to spend more money in the economy. What if a trump supporter watching the market saw what a longshot it was and decided not to go to the Capitol on January 6th?
The value generation is for passive observers: it is theoretically more informative to be told that there is a y% chance of x from someone with a financial incentive to be right.
(also, we allow plenty of zero and negative sum interactions in society. I don't know why this is special.)
A reactive notebook for Python that runs in browser, powered by Pyodide. I have been using it extensively for teaching Python to non-STEM students that do not need the added friction of navigating the CLI or filesystem hierarchy.
Hello from the original creator of marimo. Do you have teaching materials to share? I would love to see how one might teach Python with a reactive notebook
Hey akshayka, I'm not that teacher, but I am a fan, and I notice that marimo sharing would be easier if export and import from normal boring Spyder/Jupyter percent formatted .py files worked by default, instead of indented `@app.cell` decorated functions, and same for for plain Markdown, where right now it has "{.python.marimo}" code blocks with triple backticks, that would normally just say Python. Import and export that used more normal metadata (like comments) would be amazing and would make pointing people to marimo easier. Any chance of this?
What do you consider an "LLM provider"? Is it a website where you interact with a language model by uploading text or images? That definition might become too broad too quickly. Hard to ban.
the bulk of money comes from enterprise users. Just need to call 500 CEOs from the S&P500 list, and enforce via "cyber data safety" enforcement via SEC or something like that.
everyone will roll over if all large public companies roll over (and they will)
Logseq + Syncthing has been working quite well. Logseq is well maintained, has a fully functional Android app, and a thriving plug-in ecosystem. I have been using the combination for a year and it's an excellent long term solution.
> Mozilla is starting to seriously have a long list of highly questionable if not directly user hostile behaviors.
Would you care to provide examples? I am a longtime user of Mozilla products unfamiliar with the topic and I am genuinely curious.
> What should we think of their VPN they try to promote so much
Mozilla does not have its own service but rather resells Mullvad, one of the most privacy focused services in existence. Is there more to this story that I am unaware of?
Allow me to add this to the other sibling comments: Pocket was an... interesting series of choices.
"""
Mozilla replaced a feature that was end to end encrypted with one that sent private data to a third party for data mining.
They denied getting paid for the integration. That was technically true. They eventually admitted they got paid for referrals.
They bought the company in 2017 and promised to release the source code. They still haven't.
The Pocket website says "as a member of the Firefox family, privacy is paramount."[1] The first part is misleading and the second part is simply false.
Open Sourcing something is never a easy task especially if it calls for a complete rewrite which i assume is why it still has not been open sourced yet
Buying a technology company, they buy a proven idea. If the bought tech has a diffrent stack than everything else Mozilla already had then rewriting it is going to be a good long term idea.
