It depends on the task. There are certain tasks which are too tedious, time-consuming, and error-prone to be valuable for humans to perform, and couldn't be automated effectively until LLMs came along. Eric Raymond has cited a shortening of some tasks from weeks to hours. Andreas Kling managed to lift the JS runtime for his browser Ladybird to Rust from C++ in a couple of weeks, some 25,000 lines of code.
The productivity gains are real, and in some cases they are enormous. It is actively, profoundly stupid to pass on them. You need to learn how to work with AI.
Oh for sure, there are _many_ things we defer or value too much for the time they'd have taken otherwise.
But my point is, those are, by definition, lower value. Check back in a big company how much their revenue growth is (which is ultimately the only metric that's hard to game), then the situation changes.
Otherwise, im sure diff per person per day went up 10x. Output in the sense I am talking about is different.
Everything is a skill, depending on what the company values. Early on I used to do work for temp agencies, and they'd care about the ability to use (even on a rudimentary level) Microsoft Word, Excel, and how fast you could type. I'm sure you wouldn't care about anything like that, but it's about the same level of complexity as interacting with codex/claude today.
Building software with llm is easier than you imagine. I'd be surprised if you just don't pick it up. No need to lie, just open codex or claude and give it a try.
What sort of liquidity is there? The other question I have is Elon is looking into nasdaq listing with passive funds buying from get go to keep the buying pressure on a low float. Any risk that's not seen?
For reference, I've been asked in the last month for a $500mm chunk of stock to a single buyer at or (slightly) above the combination price. At that price, there is no liquidity - it's below ask.
Thank you. I recently saw a bunch of (mostly) engineers join just before ipo, and at 1.7T valuation it makes you really think how much market will take it.
I never bet against Elon, and admire a lot about him, so not certainly a dig against him, just seeing what happened to figma (combined with software + ai down market) makes me really curious
Otherwise, it's an amazing chance to work directly with Elon for sure
Building is half the battle. Knowing what to build is the other half.
Most IC6/7+ would not code anyways - in fact a friend of mine said "we had our own agents we just called them IC4/5" - which was ironic but funny.
I am curious if we would ever get a new programming language like rust or go, without this creativity.
In a way, we have different products that does more or less same things (postgres vs mysql for example). The reason is there's difference of thought in the process. I doubt this will go away.
This is what bugs me the most. Those who are now at IC6/7 rose through the daily grind of coding and debugging from L1. But now that those jobs are getting automated how will someone rise to IC6!!? It’s as if first 10 rungs of a ladder are missing and only someone with an exceptionally good athleticism can jump up and start from 11th rung.
I think in the coming decades we will see IKEA effect in woodworking. Like it’s extremely easy to build cheap furniture whose individual parts are really compressed papers. There’s hardly any good carpenters left to do the real wood carpentry. Those who are left will cost a bomb (rightly so) and can only be afforded by rich people.
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