I don't think that massive downturn people are thinking is coming ... is going to come. The job market is too strong (because of lower immigration, and how many exited the job market during covid) and so is the housing market.
I thinks its going to be more like this for the next 8-12 months, until the fed stops raising interest rates, and then it will be a mad dash to get everything going again.
This article[0] doesn't discuss the tech industry specifically, but Jerome Powell recently stated that deaths from covid is a notable factor in the labor shortfall. Those deaths, along with early retirements and decreased immigration, have left the labor market about 3.5 million people lighter than it would have been without covid.
Bird is another big one, they've been trading below the $1 watermark for a week or two now, after 30 days of consecutively trading under $1 companies get delisted from the exchange.
Let's say that I find it annoying when people "missbehave", like people letting their dogs shit wherever and not cleaning up, or just commonly being selfish and rude.
How do I now understand myself better? Is the point that the problem is somehow in me or what does this advice mean?
The people who like your new stuff will help you figure out how to fix it and make it good enough so the old system truly becomes obsolete, otherwise the old system will continue to exist and people will continue to use it, so that now, theres 2 options instead of just one.
It's not as dramatic as that looks. They changed the definition of M1.
From the same link:
Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions.
Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately.
m1 graph is incredibly misleading because they changed the definition, and even before it was still quite limited. Here's the real money supply https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
*Printing money, but in response to covid stagnation in 2020.
Printing and interest rates are separate. There was still a missed opportunity to increase interest rates while the economy was running hot prior to 2020.
It has been increasing since 2008, without Covid the same graph would look very different. Its just that the fed just increased the scale so much that the previous level seems puny now, even though the y axis is 1000s of Billions of dollars.
I thinks its going to be more like this for the next 8-12 months, until the fed stops raising interest rates, and then it will be a mad dash to get everything going again.