The EU is breaking up a little now. It's concrete now. It is no longer correct to claim it is not breaking up to a non-zero extent. And there are other countries that are at least making noise about leaving that I would consider feasible candidates over the next 5-10 years.
The UK is definitely facing a lot of stress and I'd place the odds of something breaking away, and that part possibly even rejoining the EU (though that remains to be seen; in the amount of time it will take to accomplish that the calculations of cost/benefit for joining the EU may shift substantially) in the next 5-10 years as quite high.
As someone who just identified as "a bit of a secessionist", I haven't got much motivation for sugarcoating these things, nor even necessarily considering "denying the possibility of secession" as a form of sugarcoating. I'm not sure what the "and I think you know it" bit is for.
I also consider the US a good candidate for some separation. Relatedly, though this isn't "secession" in the same sense, I wouldn't be surprised the Middle East has some country lines that look very different in 20 years. If the world gets into a secessionist mood, Catalan may finally peel away, Quebec separatism could heat up again, and if one listens to the little whispers coming out of China I wouldn't consider it out of the question it ends up cracked into a few pieces. The world has been awfully stagnant politically for a long time, even before we consider the radical technical and social shifts occurring at a rate never before seen in history; I find it implausible that all these changes won't eventually result in some sort of manifestation on the globe. I would not be surprised we're coming up on one of the "punctuations" in a punctuated equilibrium; my interest (to the extent that it matters, which is virtually nil) is not in preventing that from happening, but making sure it happens with as little dying as possible.
The UK is definitely facing a lot of stress and I'd place the odds of something breaking away, and that part possibly even rejoining the EU (though that remains to be seen; in the amount of time it will take to accomplish that the calculations of cost/benefit for joining the EU may shift substantially) in the next 5-10 years as quite high.
As someone who just identified as "a bit of a secessionist", I haven't got much motivation for sugarcoating these things, nor even necessarily considering "denying the possibility of secession" as a form of sugarcoating. I'm not sure what the "and I think you know it" bit is for.
I also consider the US a good candidate for some separation. Relatedly, though this isn't "secession" in the same sense, I wouldn't be surprised the Middle East has some country lines that look very different in 20 years. If the world gets into a secessionist mood, Catalan may finally peel away, Quebec separatism could heat up again, and if one listens to the little whispers coming out of China I wouldn't consider it out of the question it ends up cracked into a few pieces. The world has been awfully stagnant politically for a long time, even before we consider the radical technical and social shifts occurring at a rate never before seen in history; I find it implausible that all these changes won't eventually result in some sort of manifestation on the globe. I would not be surprised we're coming up on one of the "punctuations" in a punctuated equilibrium; my interest (to the extent that it matters, which is virtually nil) is not in preventing that from happening, but making sure it happens with as little dying as possible.