As much as I want to stay in Europe that ain't happening. She didn't need to call this. She did it because the polls say she'll win and that's another 5 years we're stuck with a tory government. Labour is the biggest challenger and they're pro-brexit. With the SNP's popularity Labour can't win enough seats to challenge anyway and given their differing stances on brexit I don't see how a Labour/Lib Dems/SNP coalition would work.
Are Labour really "pro-Brexit"? I understand they're pretty divided right now, but I thought it was more that they have to publicly show they're prepared to live with it moving forward.
To be fair, she wouldn't be the first PM in recent history to call a vote they were sure they'd win and live to regret it.
The real danger for her is presumably that MPs don't give her the mandate to hold the election at all, which would potentially mean we get yet another new and unelected PM.
She wasn't pro-brexit, it's difficult to say what her motives are. It does seem the enormity of brexit is becoming more apparent as time goes on, perhaps she would like a tight result to keep a lid on the right of her party.
Yes but this is a general election where we're voting for a party, not pro or anti-Brexit. I despise the conservatives, but I support Brexit. So I'm certainly not voting for the lib dems. I actually like every single Liberal Democrat policy besides their hard-line on doing everything they can to ignore the result of the referendum. It's a shame because I don't feel like labour are in a position to really take the country forward right now.
I'm afraid that's wishful thinking - there is no opposition to the Conservatives right now other than the SNP. Short of a miracle, May's majority will increase.
Sure, but many who voted never expected them to actually win and saw it as a protest vote. A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. Now brexit has been initiated and it's becoming clear what the consequences are many more people are getting cold feet.
A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won.
This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. Opinion polls have pretty consistently shown very little change in overall sentiment on Brexit. In many cases they seem to have observed marginally more regret among Leave voters than Remain voters, but the numbers were small enough in both cases that it probably wouldn't have affected the referendum result itself, and surely far too small to have much effect on a general election result.
As far as I'm aware, that relates to the only major poll since Brexit that suggested sufficient remorse on the Leave side to affect the referendum decision. That's why it was big news.
Even so, it was still well within the margin of error. Your rounding was misleading: the referendum result was 51.9% to 48.1%, almost a 4% gap.
It also still assumed, probably incorrectly, no remorse on the Remain side to cancel out the remorse from Leavers.
But probably more significantly than any of that, I think every other poll I've seen from reasonably credible sources in recent months has pointed the other way. The one you're talking about appears to have been an anomaly.
I've never seen any detailed analysis of the reasons why people voted the way they did in the EU referendum, but I can think of one good reason why people who voted to remain might now think the UK should leave: because it was a democratic vote and they think its result should be acted upon, rather than ignored. That doesn't mean they regretted voting to remain in the EU.
The point you make is definitely valid. I personally know people who are likely to vote against the Lib Dems having previously supported them for exactly that reason.
Regarding detailed analysis, you might find the Ashcroft polls interesting if you haven't seen them before. He did a write-up shortly after the referendum[1], primarily about who voted which way and why. Then there have been a couple more interesting ones just a few days before today's announcement as well[2,3], looking at current expectations regarding Brexit and more general voting intentions.
Spoilers for [1]: The top three reasons identified for Leave voters were (most significant first) sovereignty, immigration, and lack of control over ever closer union and EU expansion in the future. The top three reasons identified for Remain voters were the economic risks of leaving, Single Market access without being in the Eurozone or Schengen area being seen as the best of both worlds, and the feeling of becoming more isolated if we left.
Spoilers for [2]/[3]: Everything you've been assuming about the Tories being dominant in British politics today is true, except that you've probably underestimated just how utterly dominant they actually are and how unpopular both Labour and the Lib Dems are. It's going to be a long few weeks if you're not a blues fan.
No, it's not. From the same article I linked before: "But a small number of Remain voters were apparently glad the vote did not go their way, with two per cent saying Brexit was in fact the best part of 2016"
So 4% of 'leave' voters regret voting leave and 2% of 'remain' voters regret voting 'remain'. So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages.
I always wondered how many realized that "leave" would mean the union is dissolved (The Kingdom, that is - not the European union), and of give those circumstances would rather have voted remain, to keep the UK intact?
Northern Ireland is dependent on having an open border with the Republic, and also has an agriculture-based economy.
Some of the possible (likely?) Brexit outcomes mean a closed border with customs posts and the end of agricultural subsides or the ability to sell agricultural products cross-border.
I agree that the open border is important for those on both sides. Personally I was hoping that the political leaders of both the UK and EU would start the negotiations by aiming for common ground and establishing some good faith, and the Irish border would surely be one of the areas where everyone could agree a high degree of openness was in everyone's best interests. Alas, they seem to be doing the opposite so far, and now we have this new spanner in the works.
I meant the odds of Scotland or Northern Ireland leasing the UK may have been different than what the voters thought in the referendum. Or to put it differently: if there had been a third option in the referendum of "Leave, but only if it can be done while keeping the UK intact" how would that option have done in the referendum? (ignoring whether it would be practically possible to have that option).
The conservatives could have real trouble getting out the vote if people think it a foregone conclusion. Will people really fear a Corbyn victory enough to turn out?
Well the LibDems are going to say that but they are not going to win. The other two parties aren't - Labour is going split in half. The Tories might see defections, but will stay together and press ahead with Brexit in the hope of a massive majority.
Agreed, I think Tim Farron was right on point strategy-wise to come out and immediately, unequivocally say that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to stay in.
It's just not going to sway nearly enough people to win a majority, and the Tories know that.
True, but if the LibDems can pull enough Blairites away from Corbyn and urban Tories away from May it will give the LibDems a core that they can move forward with. (I don't think they have a hope in hell of actually even getting enough MPs to play kingmakers, but they may be aiming to simply supplant Labour as the opposition party...)
The trouble is, the Lib Dems under Farron have essentially become a single-issue party.
That decision potentially alienates about 1/3 of their previous voter base who voted to Leave, as well as those who did want to Remain but either don't believe in overriding a popular referendum on democratic principles or don't feel strongly enough on the issue to disrupt things further.
Given that we're talking about the Lib Dems here, all of those could be significant groups. It's quite a gamble to bet your whole political strategy on attracting enough voters from other parties because they feel so strongly on Europe, and according to recent polling, it looks like it's a gamble that is going to fail unspectacularly.
Thinking about this more I am convinced Farron is on the right track. The leave/remain issue gives the LibDems an opening to expand and they should take it, there is no future in being 'not nasty enough to vote Tory but not dumb enough to vote Labour' and if both parties are willing to surrender an issue that at one point had the support of 48% of the country (and concentrated in a few areas to make campaigning easier) then you go for it.
Without such a gamble the LibDems will remain in the also-ran group with UKIP and the Greens. You push any issue that gives you a wedge and use it to crack a few ridings and if necessary you write off the 1/3 in the hope of picking up 2/5 of the two larger parties.
I don't think it alienates any of their base. The Lib Dems have always been hugely pro-Europe, I doubt that anyone who voted Leave would have been a supporter in the first place.
FWIW, I know from immediate personal contacts that it does, and not in entirely trivial numbers. I'm in one of the most pro-Remain areas of the country, but also a LD/Lab marginal, so it will be interesting to see what happens as a result. I suspect it won't make much difference here, but if the same effect is evident in more moderate parts of the country, it could actually hurt them.
Sorry to reply twice; I can't edit my previous comment any more.
It looks like there's been another poll today that is consistent with what I've seen reported previously: about 1/3 of Lib Dem voters at the last election voted Leave in the referendum, and currently Lib Dem loyalty is lowest among the major parties, with a similar proportion of Lib Dem voters at the last election expecting to vote for someone else at the next one.
I don't have numbers in front of me, but I also can't think of a riding where the LibDems were within 5% last election that voted Leave. IMHO the odds seem better if the LibDems can claim "Remain if possible, soft Brexit if not" when it comes to picking up Tory and Labour seats.
