South Korea and the United States are politically weak right now -- not necessarily the leaders, but the political systems are at a low point of unity and resolve. Neither country really wants to deal with North Korea right now. People in each country would like this drama to be over, because it feels dangerous and intractable. The leaders in each country would love to deliver that feeling to us.
Kim Jong-un has an incredibly strong hand. He has nuclear missiles at his disposal, with apparently rapid progress toward increasing their range. He knows that other nations are fearful of those weapons, and that they won't do anything that risks putting them on the receiving end of even one.
We've had one bold historic headline after another now: Kim Jong-un has telegraphed a desire to denuclearize and to end the Korean war. He has raised the hopes of South Koreans and of Americans just enough that they each want a deal now, and their leaders now need to deliver.
But the price has not yet been negotiated.
What will be the price? Will Kim promise to stop further nuclear development? Will Kim promise to stop further missile development? Will Kim promise not to help other states develop nuclear missiles? Will Kim promise not to radically modernize his military in other ways as the floodgates of trade open?
Promises are inexpensive and reversible. Will he actually take any real steps to diminish or eliminate his nuclear and military power? I doubt it. Kim's not an idiot. He only needs to present the illusion.
People in the West seem to believe that Kim has experienced some sort of rebirth as a student of peace and nonviolence of late. But there's been no explanation and no demonstration (to my ears) of where that came from. It's possible perhaps that Xi Jinping whispered wonderful ideas and/or threats in Kim Jong-un's ear when he visited, but that's opaque to us and media I've read seems to be ignorant of such potential influence. If Kim were so serious, we should need him to demonstrate that credibly to us, through actions that are costly for him to take: in particular, pitching this change of vision directly and passionately to the populace of North Korea.
Kim Jong-un wants to get out from under the chokehold of heavy trade sanctions. He wants to be legitimized in the international community as the leader of a real nation. He wants to modernize both his military and his nation and his personal life. He probably dreams of visiting Paris and Manhattan.
It is my belief that he will be able to get these things -- without giving up nuclear weapons, missiles, nor giving up his political or military power over North Korea. From Kim's perspective, democratic politicians are weak and manipulable, and he will find it to be especially true right now.
That he's been able to do this with South Korea alone without the US at the table tells you how strong of a hand he has and how weak our hand is.
I think this is a ploy to do two things:
1. Economic growth for North Korea, which has been happened to some extend already.
2. Get the US out of the Korean Peninsula.
A strong economy will allow NK to develop or buy all sorts of updated conventional arms. NK is seriously weak here. Their air force is horribly out of date. I doubt they can actually defeat South Korea in a conventional war even if the US is not helping SK.
Once the US presence is no longer there, it becomes a lot harder for the US to re-enter in times of conflict because now NK can threaten us with nuclear weapons. Most American will not trade Seattle or SF for South Korea.
Unification of Korea is pretty much a non-negotiatable goal for the North Korean regime. It's been their goal since the start and the reason why the leading families in NK support the Kim family.
I would be careful to underestimate the North's ability to fight a war. You don't need cutting edge technology with the sort of topography they've got. Look at a topographic map of North Korea. It's mountain ranges and valleys. Dense veg, steep drops, spots for tunnels, rapid currents. You could put an army from the 50s in there and have a hell of a time getting them to quit.
I don't doubt their ability to defend their own territory and your point about that is correct. However, I don't see South Korea being the aggressor. If there is a war, North Korea would be the aggressor and I doubt their current ability to successfully invade and conquer South Korea. They would have to acquire new conventional capabilities to do that and a viable economy is necessary for that development.
To be sure: if this is a good faith approach to Unification, it should be up to the respective peoples to decide what their political fate ultimately is. I don't see the South Koreans willingly wishing to be ruled by the Kim regime.
But if its a ploy to get the US out so that Kim can strong arm the South Koreans... that is bad news.
I think you're exactly right. I see this as the "Peace for Our Time"[1] deal that people will get excited about now, and cause us to take our eye off the real danger. Until tragedy happens.
There's a big difference: Hitler had the capability to launch a successful aggressive war. Kim, without a doubt, does not. And no amount of military buildup will get him to equal footing with the Western powers poised to massively retaliate if he provokes war.
So what exactly is the tragedy you're talking about? A nuclear attack? That would be suicide.
It's hard to subscribe to predictions that fly in the face of basic principles of international relations.
This is where the nuclear weapons and madman ploy comes in. Once the US exits the Korean peninsula (and really, why is the US there now there is "peace"?), it's a lot harder for us to go back and help South Korea when North Korea and the supposed madman Kim is threatening us with nukes.
"That would be suicide."
This is exactly why he deploys his madman act. You can reason about a reasonable person but a madman introduces an element of randomness. Once you're dealing with randomness, you have to talk in terms of probability. Would the US be willing to take even a 1% chance that he would go that far and launch nukes at us?
They're not at all! They put up that act to make people believe they are so that it introduces an element of uncertainty into the calculation. Like the parent said, going to war with the US is suicide, which no rational leader would do but a seemingly irrational/insane leader might. This adds an element of risk to the US and make us think twice about intervening.
The events wont be exactly the same of course. The tragedy I fear is war with China, triggered by North Korean aggression. Both WWI and WWII started in ways that flew in the face of principles of international relations.
> South Korea and the United States are politically weak right now ...
I don't know where you're getting news about Korea, but since his inauguration on May 2017, Moon Jae-In has been consistently enjoying approval rating of 60-70%. Even his party is enjoying ~50% support, while the chief opposition party (the conservative Liberty Korea Party) is struggling at 10-15% (although they do have 116 out of 293 seats at congress).
South Korea and the United States are politically weak right now -- not necessarily the leaders, but the political systems are at a low point of unity and resolve. Neither country really wants to deal with North Korea right now. People in each country would like this drama to be over, because it feels dangerous and intractable. The leaders in each country would love to deliver that feeling to us.
Kim Jong-un has an incredibly strong hand. He has nuclear missiles at his disposal, with apparently rapid progress toward increasing their range. He knows that other nations are fearful of those weapons, and that they won't do anything that risks putting them on the receiving end of even one.
We've had one bold historic headline after another now: Kim Jong-un has telegraphed a desire to denuclearize and to end the Korean war. He has raised the hopes of South Koreans and of Americans just enough that they each want a deal now, and their leaders now need to deliver.
But the price has not yet been negotiated.
What will be the price? Will Kim promise to stop further nuclear development? Will Kim promise to stop further missile development? Will Kim promise not to help other states develop nuclear missiles? Will Kim promise not to radically modernize his military in other ways as the floodgates of trade open?
Promises are inexpensive and reversible. Will he actually take any real steps to diminish or eliminate his nuclear and military power? I doubt it. Kim's not an idiot. He only needs to present the illusion.
People in the West seem to believe that Kim has experienced some sort of rebirth as a student of peace and nonviolence of late. But there's been no explanation and no demonstration (to my ears) of where that came from. It's possible perhaps that Xi Jinping whispered wonderful ideas and/or threats in Kim Jong-un's ear when he visited, but that's opaque to us and media I've read seems to be ignorant of such potential influence. If Kim were so serious, we should need him to demonstrate that credibly to us, through actions that are costly for him to take: in particular, pitching this change of vision directly and passionately to the populace of North Korea.
Kim Jong-un wants to get out from under the chokehold of heavy trade sanctions. He wants to be legitimized in the international community as the leader of a real nation. He wants to modernize both his military and his nation and his personal life. He probably dreams of visiting Paris and Manhattan.
It is my belief that he will be able to get these things -- without giving up nuclear weapons, missiles, nor giving up his political or military power over North Korea. From Kim's perspective, democratic politicians are weak and manipulable, and he will find it to be especially true right now.
(edit: s/telescoped/telegraphed/ -- thanks!)