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Hurricane path prediction seems truly a "killer app", or do you think it's not?


Predicting weather it will rain or not today would be a killer app, and I'm still waiting.


Agreed. It turns out storm system movements are easier to predict than local precipitation. Aggregates of a system are easier to predict than localized/point values.

https://www.precisionag.com/systems-management/data/betting-... - this is about how effective and useful forecasts are (the are useful, because we have calibrated forecasts, so we can use them for objective decision support for agriculture)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gardening/problem-solving/ken-th... - this is about how relatively dry places (like the US or UK) usually get a lot of misprediction, even if the accuracy is 90%. (But it's not, it's more like 80-85%.)




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