> Nationally, the recidivism rate after incarceration is over 75 percent, with close to 50 percent of ex-convicts committing a new crime that can land them back within a year, according to a 2014 report by the U.S. Department of Justice. But Cicconetti claims to have a recidivism rate of only 10 percent.
I'd like to know what the DOJ's numbers would say for his area... and similar counties in the area.
Or the national rate is far from uniform. Google tells me the Ohio State rate is 27.1 percent. I wonder what it's like in neighboring counties, or for people in the same area who get a different judge.
Correlation doesn't imply causation, but the lack of correlation does definitely imply a lack of causation as well.
So while it's not correct to say Cicconetti's approach lowers recidivism, or that jail time increases it, it's definitely correct to say that a punitive, jail-heavy approach to justice is not at all effective at rehabilitation.
> a lack of correlation does definitely imply a lack of causation as well.
That's not true as well, see Friedman's Thermostat for the extreme case
Generally rehabilitation percentages for "alternative punishments" can be misleading because they tend to be applied to situations where they're more likely to succeed
Who knew that generic jail/prison punishments don't rehabilitate.