I've been thinking about this today and I realized that there's one thing that makes the carriers and handset manufacturers unimportant.... browser support. If the incumbents continue to stifle innnovation, then the best apps will come out as m.mycrazywebsite.com instead of as installed software.
Just like with webapps. The problem with mobile browsers is that it takes 5-10 seconds every time the user clicks a link which quickly gets annoying. Luckily nokia, opera and others are giving uss mobile widgets. As easy to make as web apps but run on device with full api access to hardware. We just have to wait the 2-3 years whilst it becomes standard on most handsets.
