> I’d consider investing in biopharma to be equivalent in risk reward to early stage startup investing.
Similar risk reward, but it seems harder to have any insight into a pharma startup's chances of success. Sure, it is easier to gauge potential market (% of people affected by condition X), but whether they will be able to develop a product is a total dice roll.
it's definitely a gamble...not sure how to necessarily measure whether it's any more or less than early stage tech investing, though. at least your investment is liquid, which is big, and the timeline for trials, readouts, etc. is known relatively far in advance.
you can look at things that an early stage investor looks at like team, hiring, etc. beyond just progress.
IMO this decade will be absolutely massive for biopharma. Plenty of good opportunities, especially for those complaining that the reward is public markets is not as high as early stage.
Both are obviously a gamble, but pharma is more of a black box than tech.
As an investor, I can make an informed option whether there is a market for subscription indoor cycles like an Peloton. I could be wrong, but I can look up the market numbers and weigh them against my personal experience and world view. When it comes to pharma, almost nobody has domain expertise of the subject.
To put it another way, the leading risk in tech is market adoption, while the leading risk pin Biopharma is technical feasibility.
Similar risk reward, but it seems harder to have any insight into a pharma startup's chances of success. Sure, it is easier to gauge potential market (% of people affected by condition X), but whether they will be able to develop a product is a total dice roll.