To paraphrase Luke Skywalker in The Last Jedi, everything in that sentence is wrong--or at least seriously questionable.
> The stock has it mostly priced in
It does? I've seen about the same number of analyses indicating that companies are doing dubious things to bolster their earnings on paper (and haven't priced in the full cost of the crisis) as I've seen supporting your argument.
> but the rise of the stock is attributed to the fact
Explanations for this abound. From basically every corner, qualified, popular, neither, and both. Post-Black-Swan shockwaves are usually accompanied by a lot of confusion and after-the-fact pseudorationalization, and this situation is no different.
> European countries are flattening
Sort of (recorded clusters/outbreaks keep getting reported),
partially (some countries are doing really well, some are not), and only according to really, really new data.
> vaccines
Presumably you mean vaccine research getting underway? This is happening, to be sure. Still has the attribution (after-the-fact potential for false correlation) problem mentioned above.
> ramped up testing in the US
There's not consensus on the effect of more testing on the markets either. Testing builds confidence/information on the one hand but, in many US states, it has revealed worse-than-expected (well, really worse-than-hoped) numbers of sick people on the other.
I guess the upshot of the above is: you make a very authoritative statement about why the markets have behaved in a certain way. That information isn't even beginning to be known, or, at this early phase, knowable, with any sort of confidence.
> The stock has it mostly priced in
It does? I've seen about the same number of analyses indicating that companies are doing dubious things to bolster their earnings on paper (and haven't priced in the full cost of the crisis) as I've seen supporting your argument.
> but the rise of the stock is attributed to the fact
Explanations for this abound. From basically every corner, qualified, popular, neither, and both. Post-Black-Swan shockwaves are usually accompanied by a lot of confusion and after-the-fact pseudorationalization, and this situation is no different.
> European countries are flattening
Sort of (recorded clusters/outbreaks keep getting reported), partially (some countries are doing really well, some are not), and only according to really, really new data.
> vaccines
Presumably you mean vaccine research getting underway? This is happening, to be sure. Still has the attribution (after-the-fact potential for false correlation) problem mentioned above.
> ramped up testing in the US
There's not consensus on the effect of more testing on the markets either. Testing builds confidence/information on the one hand but, in many US states, it has revealed worse-than-expected (well, really worse-than-hoped) numbers of sick people on the other.
I guess the upshot of the above is: you make a very authoritative statement about why the markets have behaved in a certain way. That information isn't even beginning to be known, or, at this early phase, knowable, with any sort of confidence.
Edits: grammar.