They've indicated that each satellite costs about $250K to build, and launch costs per satellite are about $500K. Each satellite lasts 5 years. Each satellite gets 50Gbps (25Gbps actual since you have to go up & down). They haven't released base station costs, but there are some estimates that it'll be about $2K per. The other big unknown is the utilization factor.
It's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and not show SpaceX making money hand over fist, but there are bears out there that have come up with some really contrived models.
It's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and not show SpaceX making money hand over fist, but there are bears out there that have come up with some really contrived models.
At $2000 just to buy in to the system, they've cut off a huge chunk of their purported market.
Unless they plan on using unicorn accounting again, it's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and show SpaceX even making its money back on the first wave of satellite launches unless they dominate the rural ISP market. In order to just break even on fixed and operational costs they'd need to charge at least as much as existing rural ISPs, and if they charge significantly more they won't acquire significant market share because their are faster options available at higher pricepoints that aren't susceptible to the weather. And most of those alternatives have roughly the same buy-in costs if SpaceX actually plans on making customers pay $2000 for a base station.
And then they'd need to do it all over again in 5 years when they have to replace their satellites.
It's pretty hard to punch those numbers into a model and not show SpaceX making money hand over fist, but there are bears out there that have come up with some really contrived models.