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I assume by 'native' you mean 'white'? Looking at the students/faculty of elite schools/research labs and staff of top companies, I see plenty of highly intelligent and educated non-white immigrants producing great work (sometimes they even make up the majority of these elite groups).

And many (most?) Western countries do provide various incentives to have kids, as well as Asian countries, but the incentives don't ever seem to work to get above that 2.1 replacement level, so Western governments are 'worried'/concerned about birth rates, but boosting them significantly not an easy thing to do. Especially when part of the reason might be that people simply don't want more than 1 or 2 kids these days regardless of finances.



white

At this point it affects most countries outside of Africa.

immigration

I believe in diversity. Immigration will forever change the countries it affects, typically making them more like the source countries.

boosting hard

One might be able to push it just above 2.1, but fundamentally the causes are significant, unprecedented technological and social changes since the industrial revolution. Nowhere is it guaranteed that these changes produce a stable, lasting order.


Re: replacement ration > 2.1

Its not just about the number of children per women/couple: the missing element is to have children really young.

Like 16 - 24

Make childcare, schooling, etc tax deductible for starters.


IMO even with all those incentives I just don't see the typical age at first child getting to 16-24 in any Western country even with strong incentives.

Not just because of costs, but the harder to modify cultural reasons like people valuing independence, "casual dating"/FWB more common instead of dating with intent to marry, less social pressure/shaming from parents ("why don't you have a husband/wife/kids yet?!"), freedom to "find yourself/travel" or "get sexually experienced/have a ho phase before settling" for years after college, etc.

Most people don't want to go from college to marriage and kids right away these days, and a few years of this type of casual dating/exploration after college eats up a lot of prime reproductive years like you said. But these cultural factors are very hard to change especially with the absence of religion/strong communities these days.




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