1. It was statistically extremely likely a virus like COVID would come along soon, and models have predicted such viruses arising naturally for a long time.
2. It is at the same time perfectly possible it was engineered.
3. It is a plain stupid move, politically, to outwardly entertain the idea that COVID was engineered - unless you've got proof so damning not even China could ignore it. Unlikely to exist. And even then it is only going to score you a few feel-good points with the plebeians at home.
4. Either possibility has no impact at all on shorter term decision making. It is stupid to burden people whose immediate goal it is to save lives with even more political minefields they have to navigate.
"Both are possible, so it's impossible to know. And even if we suspected, there's no good reason to try. And even if we tried it's just going to burden people. And even if we knew it has no impact on our 'decision making'"
How about, figuring out the truth is the right thing to do?
My comment is an explanation of the behavior of leaders and specifically addressing the article.
It is very much not an opinion of what should be done where it doesn't concern international cooperation in a time of crisis.
I'm very much for figuring out why a crisis occurred, because it might save lives down the line. That doesn't mean that it makes sense to burn bridges that are saving lives right now - especially if you can have both.
Even if there was undeniable proof that the virus escaped a Chinese lab, the smart course of action for Fauci, his peers in other countries, the WHO, and pretty much anyone working with the Chinese would be to ignore it for now. Anything else would be endangering international cooperation and lives with it. For what?
Its realism not defeatism, thats how global politics work.
The fact it was a leak or not doesn't change the fact the virus is out. Thats the bottom line.
There is no recourse, no fallout, no repercussions to going after china without solid evidence. "Shrug and deny" is all you will acheive.
There are photos and evidence of china trying to wipe Uighur culture via violence, slave labour and 're-education' camps at nazi scale.
Worldwide reaction - oh its terrible you should stop, please - nothing changes.
Besides, how are you going to go about proving it was leaked/engineered? The officials probably already disappeared all witnesses/evidence anyway.
The reality is we will never know for sure.
Its very suspicious, that the virus started pretty much next to the lab. I myself 70% on side it was actually a leak (wouldn't be surprised a tested animal was smuggled out to be sold for meat - sounds very chinese thing to do). But it doesnt matter, virus is out and thats my main problem.
This is a very good list of things more people need to understand. Could it have been a lab leak? Yes! Could we say with any certainty that it was? No. If we levy such accusations without proof does it provide any benefit? Yes, to politicians with an agenda.
The benefit is that it triggers investigations. All investigations of crimes start without proof - otherwise there'd be no need for an investigation.
In this case an investigation has happened and the evidence all points in the same direction. Putting China to one side, the actionable outcome of this should be shutting down NIAID and canning or prosecuting Fauci.
And yet, opposite accusations were levied, building a consensus likely based on lies. This is why the truth and us pursuing it must stand outside of all these dichotomies.
3 is false, your accusation doesn't need to be real at all yo damage your opponent. China was thee first to say it was the americans using biological warfare and accused them of deploying the virus during some kind of international competition of armed forces.
This isn't a game where you win if you "damage" your "opponent" a certain degree.
Individuals, countries, have goals they are trying to actualize. Accusations are made if the accuser believes it will serve them.
Throwing unprovable accusations at China helps with nothing western countries are trying to accomplish. The most you can get out of it is some points during an election - it is helpful in painting a bogeyman draped in Chinese colors.
Even if the goal was to reach an international treaty banning such research, it would make no sense to alienate China this way. It would put China in a position where they could not sign such a treaty without appearing weak during a time in which they are putting a lot of effort in appearing strong.
>1. It was statistically extremely likely a virus like COVID would come along soon, and models have predicted such viruses arising naturally for a long time.
Yes, been seeing these predictions for a long time.
>It is at the same time perfectly possible it was engineered.
Occams razor clearly indicates it was engineered at this point. We have had years to prove it was zoonotic, it's not.
>It is a plain stupid move, politically, to outwardly entertain the idea that COVID was engineered - unless you've got proof so damning not even China could ignore it. Unlikely to exist. And even then it is only going to score you a few feel-good points with the plebeians at home.
Not sure I agree with this point. There's a wide gap at this point between 'engineered to release and attack the world' and 'lab leak because they were incompetent.' Which is exactly what was already established. Many sources clearly indicated they werent following basic safety procedures at that lab.
>Either possibility has no impact at all on shorter term decision making. It is stupid to burden people whose immediate goal it is to save lives with even more political minefields they have to navigate.
On the contrary. They cannot do their job effectively without doing exactly this. If we ignored reality like we did, they now will react inappropriately. Which is what happened.
> Occams razor clearly indicates it was engineered at this point. We have had years to prove it was zoonotic, it's not.
You and I have very different ideas of what constitutes a proof. Failure to prove A does not imply ¬A and how/if Occam's razor should be applied here is an open debate.
> > It is a plain stupid move, politically, to outwardly entertain the idea that COVID was engineered - unless you've got proof so damning not even China could ignore it. Unlikely to exist. And even then it is only going to score you a few feel-good points with the plebeians at home.
> Not sure I agree with this point. There's a wide gap at this point between 'engineered to release and attack the world' and 'lab leak because they were incompetent.' Which is exactly what was already established. Many sources clearly indicated they werent following basic safety procedures at that lab.
This is not addressing the paragraph you quoted at all. Was this supposed to address something else?
> On the contrary. They cannot do their job effectively without doing exactly this. If we ignored reality like we did, they now will react inappropriately. Which is what happened.
This sounds to me like you believe "people saving lives" is referring to Fauci and colleagues. It's referring to the tens of thousands of researchers and doctors sharing data on treatment, studies, and tracking the evolution of the virus and its variants around the globe. Fauci's job is to enable them to do their work, not make it harder. There is a very real threat that if accusations were levied against China on the political stage, cooperation would cease or become more complicated. Remember that China comprises about one fifth of the world's population.
Is it really a mistake to forego an opportunity to gloat and score some cheap political points at home, swallow some pride, contain the urge to point fingers, whatever it is, to save lives? And that's not even considering other ramifications. Just because you believe someone fucked up does not mean it serves to immediately rub their face in it.
1. It was statistically extremely likely a virus like COVID would come along soon, and models have predicted such viruses arising naturally for a long time.
2. It is at the same time perfectly possible it was engineered.
3. It is a plain stupid move, politically, to outwardly entertain the idea that COVID was engineered - unless you've got proof so damning not even China could ignore it. Unlikely to exist. And even then it is only going to score you a few feel-good points with the plebeians at home.
4. Either possibility has no impact at all on shorter term decision making. It is stupid to burden people whose immediate goal it is to save lives with even more political minefields they have to navigate.