I know you mention there are lots of reasons for false positives and negatives, but does your methodology account for length of time at all? Meaning, if a project was posted to HN in 2009, it could have been successful for 14 years and then closed down, or just changed URLs somewhere along the way, and in that case it would be counted as a failure even though it wasn't. Likewise, if it was posted in May, 2023 and is still around, that doesn't mean much because it's still flying the Grand Opening banner, practically.
Exactly. Some of these graphs are really flawed. Like the heatmap for the top 1% which pretty much mirrors the submission heatmap. I want to see what portion of submissions for that time slot reached 1%, not of all submissions. There could be time slots that perform exceedingly well outside of popular times.
