One thing to keep in mind is that if we accept that the world is heating up then you'd almost always expect any given day should be, on average, the hottest ever recorded in modern history, for that day. And at least one of those, per year, should be the hottest day ever recorded - period. So the recent trend of announcing these days like it's some unprecedented thing has, if anything, left me even more jaded.
About 20 years ago I was relatively engaged in climate activism. But my views shifted over the years after endless declarations of 'if we do nothing in 5-10 years, the world will end.' Each of those 5 or 10 years came, and it turned out that not only did the world not end, but I'd have been hard pressed to tell you it had even changed. At some point I began to wonder why should I think the next 5-10 years will be any different than the past repeated decades as it relates to this?
If I were to go back in time and optimize for encouraging activity on climate change I would make it the most boring thing imaginable. Any prediction I might make I would not only make in a clear and falsifiable fashion, but I would also make sure to lowball it. So that each and every one of my predictions could be clearly tested, even by laymen, and shown to not only be effectively 100% accurate, but even understating what was to come. I understand the point of the hyperbole is to draw people to the cause, and that may work in the short term, but in the long term you achieve the exact opposite. And it's not just me. You can see this in the longterm trends data perfectly clearly. [1]
About 20 years ago I was relatively engaged in climate activism. But my views shifted over the years after endless declarations of 'if we do nothing in 5-10 years, the world will end.' Each of those 5 or 10 years came, and it turned out that not only did the world not end, but I'd have been hard pressed to tell you it had even changed. At some point I began to wonder why should I think the next 5-10 years will be any different than the past repeated decades as it relates to this?
If I were to go back in time and optimize for encouraging activity on climate change I would make it the most boring thing imaginable. Any prediction I might make I would not only make in a clear and falsifiable fashion, but I would also make sure to lowball it. So that each and every one of my predictions could be clearly tested, even by laymen, and shown to not only be effectively 100% accurate, but even understating what was to come. I understand the point of the hyperbole is to draw people to the cause, and that may work in the short term, but in the long term you achieve the exact opposite. And it's not just me. You can see this in the longterm trends data perfectly clearly. [1]
[1] - https://news.gallup.com/poll/1615/environment.aspx