I took a counter offer and stayed for another 6-7 years. It worked out well for both parties. I knew they wanted to keep me but were stingy so it was useful to interview elsewhere to give myself some leverage.

I took the counter offer and stayed for (so far) 3 more years. To be fair, the problem was less the money and more the nature of the work, but even that was adjusted to be more accommodating.

Counteroffers are 'stem the skills bleed' at best. People who take counteroffers were annoyed enough to look in the first place, and know they're valued enough elsewhere to get a market rate. I've heard that even if someone accepts a counteroffer and stays they're very unlikely to still be there 12 months later.

The company can use that time to figure out what that person does and make sure when they leave it's not as painful and abrupt.

Or they interview regularly to stay in the game and know their value.

I wanted to move aboard when I lived in Finland and interviewed with that in mind. I got offer from UK company, but ended up agreeing to counter offer as then current company intended to open US office and I could move there at that point. Unfortunately that didn't quite pan out as company went bankrupt, but I did end up getting hired by the company that bought the IP and moved to the US after pandemic ended.

So at least for me it didn't pan out terribly though there was some luck involved.

I specifically interviewed and got an offer elsewhere precisely because, while I like my job and am very good at it, this dance of offer and counter offer is the only way to get substantial raises or bonuses. So I took the counter offer and am pretty happy about it two years later.

> In my very long career, I have yet to hear a good story of someone taking said counter offer and staying very long

I've done so twice and stayed for years afterward in both cases, but this may just be unique to how defense contracting works.

I once took a counter offer and ended up staying another 8 years.