> At the same time though, it’s starting to feel to me, to some extent, like we have kind of solved solar?
There are many metrics that affect power generation (or anything really). A few are:
- Power generation per unit area
- Power generation per unit mass
- Power generation per dollar
- Lifetime
- Decline rate (ie does the cell get less effective over time?)
- Flexibility (eg can you wrap it around a cylinder)
- Minimum size
- Maximum size
- Cost to repair
Where a given solar panel fits in the above vector space will change its applications. In some cases, size is paramount. In others, cost is paramount. Sometimes you need long-lived panels. A good example if solar panels for space probes. These need to be generate as much power for as little weight and it doesn't even really matter what the cost is. Also, making such a panel last 30 years might be irrelevant if the lifetime of the mission is 5-10 years.
Fair points! I tried to clarify in my edit, but I was mostly speaking from the perspective of grid decarbonization, as opposed to more niche (to me) applications like space probes, because that is what my personal biases are towards. It seems like a few more percentage points of efficiency at the same cost/space (so ignoring something like perk pv) doesn’t meaningfully move the needle on decarbonization efforts any more and that other challenges dominate (grid infra, batteries, etc). And I actually mean “solved” in a celebratory manner - it’s awesome that we are at this point! But yes, I was totally overlooking use cases besides residential and grid-scale PV.
There are many metrics that affect power generation (or anything really). A few are:
- Power generation per unit area
- Power generation per unit mass
- Power generation per dollar
- Lifetime
- Decline rate (ie does the cell get less effective over time?)
- Flexibility (eg can you wrap it around a cylinder)
- Minimum size
- Maximum size
- Cost to repair
Where a given solar panel fits in the above vector space will change its applications. In some cases, size is paramount. In others, cost is paramount. Sometimes you need long-lived panels. A good example if solar panels for space probes. These need to be generate as much power for as little weight and it doesn't even really matter what the cost is. Also, making such a panel last 30 years might be irrelevant if the lifetime of the mission is 5-10 years.
So no, I wouldn't call solar "solved".