note that most energy sold isn't electric. jevons made his observation when none was
not all consumer energy prices are rising, and the situation you describe where the producer captures the whole consumer surplus only happens in the absence of competition
jevons says people will compensate for more efficient tvs by buying more and bigger tvs, and for more efficient hvac by building bigger houses, living in hotter areas, and installing air conditioning in more spaces. this has been a major trend of the last 25 years you're talking about, in fact
similarly, it's true that the amount of energy per flop is going down, though not nearly as much as you might think; on the cpu it was about 2000 picojoules 30 years ago, and closer to 500 picojoules today. (the numbers you give for the m1 would work out to 16 picojoules, but the real numbers are even better. 2.6 teraflops is the graphics card, which uses 11.5 watts, which is 4 picojoules per flop. most computers lag far, far behind that in efficiency.) but the amount of energy spent on computers keeps going up and up
> producer captures the whole consumer surplus only happens in the absence of competition
Collusion is the norm. Especially with electricity suppliers where they jack up the rates because most people won't be bothered to check for better deals and switch.
> jevons says people will compensate for more efficient tvs by buying more and bigger tvs
Doesn't matter if the efficiency gains outcompete the consumption increase (which is my whole point):
> As shown in the graph below, between 2006 and 2012 the average energy consumption of televisions dropped by 57%, while at the same time average screen size increased by 30% and average price decreased by almost two-thirds.
> for more efficient hvac by building bigger houses, living in hotter areas, and installing air conditioning in more spaces. this has been a major trend of the last 25 years you're talking about, in fact
McMansions became a thing leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, and was a feature of cheap finance, not energy cost. Most people want a house that's affordable, close to amenities and doesn't take an army of servants to clean – so a house in the suburbs and within distance of the city. The factors here are land price and construction costs.
> but the amount of energy spent on computers keeps going up and up
Might be true, but it would be nice to see some data to back that claim.
collusion fortunately doesn't allow exxon to bar the importation of chinese solar panels (except in the usa) or their sale to consumers, and in most of the world, electric utility regulators force utilities to pass on some of the savings from utility-scale solar to customers. even where they don't, heavy industry can negotiate contracts, because electric utilities in paris don't collude adequately with those in bavaria, kansai, and virginia
a 130% increase in tvs per person would cancel out the 57% reduction you cite in power per tv, and presumably if you measure over any other period of time, the energy consumption drop won't be that large, because that was the crt–lcd transition, but screens had been steadily getting bigger for decades and have continued to do so. if you include computer monitors with tvs, it seems likely that the increase over the last 25 years is a lot more than 130%. certainly it is in public places (dentists' offices, intercity buses, airports, restaurants)
people have been building continuously bigger houses for centuries; it's not a phenomenon limited to zero interest rate mcmansions. suburban sprawl is one well-known
manifestation of it
as for computers, unfortunately i don't have the data here at the moment. you see handwringing about it from time to time. i'd like to see it too
Is each person watching all these TVs at once Matrix style?
Even if you've got your laptop, iPhone and iPad all unlocked and playing videos while watching your TV, it's not really adding 30% of energy use compared to the 50 inch TV.
> certainly it is in public places (dentists' offices, intercity buses, airports, restaurants)
TVs in airports, bars, diners, buses, and dentists offices have been around since the 80s. The difference now is that all their CRTs are replaced — a clear energy drop. (Source: own experience, also you can watch movies from the time)
Lit billboards have been around for a long time, but instead of massive lamps, they are just LED screens. Tokyo used to be all fluorescent bulbs, now LED screens again. It might not be like for like, could maybe be an energy increase, but public-space advertising is the best argument you've got here, but I don't buy that it's a huge driver of energy growth.
> you see handwringing about it from time to time. i'd like to see it too
I've provided plenty of data to back myself, and to suggest otherwise is disingenuous. Given the amount of claims you're making without any supporting evidence, I can only think your argument is based on conviction, not fact. I'll let you have the last word here.
oh, it's quite common for different people to have different tvs on at the same time in different rooms of the same house, when previously they would have watched the same one. or for a tv to be left on displaying a screen saver. a backlit lcd uses the same amount of power whether it's showing black, blue, a static desktop, random noise, or video
i've seen many more tvs in public places in recent decades, often replacing things like flip-dot displays or printed menuboards. mcdonalds now displays their menus on a wall of tvs instead of printed on plastic, for example
it's disappointing that you've chosen to attack my integrity, but it seems to be based on a misunderstanding. i have not claimed that you have not provided data. on the contrary, i have found your data highly informative and educational. i only meant that neither of us has convincing data about total computer power consumption, and that i would like to
not all consumer energy prices are rising, and the situation you describe where the producer captures the whole consumer surplus only happens in the absence of competition
jevons says people will compensate for more efficient tvs by buying more and bigger tvs, and for more efficient hvac by building bigger houses, living in hotter areas, and installing air conditioning in more spaces. this has been a major trend of the last 25 years you're talking about, in fact
similarly, it's true that the amount of energy per flop is going down, though not nearly as much as you might think; on the cpu it was about 2000 picojoules 30 years ago, and closer to 500 picojoules today. (the numbers you give for the m1 would work out to 16 picojoules, but the real numbers are even better. 2.6 teraflops is the graphics card, which uses 11.5 watts, which is 4 picojoules per flop. most computers lag far, far behind that in efficiency.) but the amount of energy spent on computers keeps going up and up