I disagree. Trump has been threatening tariffs since 2016. Each step he gets closer to significant tariffs. This time he stepped back after they seemed real.
Now businesses know he really, super means it this time, so they get another reprieve. But next time it would be hard to claim Trump didn’t warn them.
I agree it's classic brinksmanship and the tariff views he has are genuine and long held. But his numerous signals to the Fed to ask to lower interest rates and the commitment to DOGE (which has the effect of lowering yields) is another strand in his thinking. The two are in conflict causing the flip-flop effect in short term policy.
Now businesses know he really, super means it this time, so they get another reprieve. But next time it would be hard to claim Trump didn’t warn them.