The problem is, until laptops sold at Walmart or Best Buy start coming with Linux pre-installed as an option, adoption will never happen. Installing an aftermarket OS is just an incredibly unrealistic expectation from the average user.
Microsoft knows this, and they will do everything they can to prevent OEMs from shipping anything other than Windows. Apple of course, forget it. Their profit comes from leeching off FOSS and selling it, they would never allow distribution of it directly.
> until laptops sold at Walmart or Best Buy start coming with Linux pre-installed as an option
This is a circular problem though. They'll do it if Linux starts becoming more popular.
If you want to see this, make sure your browser agent is broadcasting Linux[0]. Make sure you're using Steam in Linux.
But right now Steam has Linux at <3%[1]. It is more than OSX, but not enough. I do think above 5% and it'll start to be taken seriously, and 10% we'll start seeing moves. Linux doesn't need 90% of the marketshare to dramatically change the world. 10% is more than enough. Even 20% would be momentous and force both Microsoft and Apple to change strategies. Don't feel like there's no hope. Just because it is an unrealistic expectation today doesn't mean it will be tomorrow. And your actions today change the odds of what happens tomorrow. So don't give up.
You don't have to change the world overnight. But you do need to make steps in the right direction, even if small, to make the world move.
[0] You can even do this while using Windows! Hell, you can use Chrome and tell people you're using Firefox on Linux if you believe in those things but just are unwilling to make the switch yourself. The signaling still does something (it is better than nothing).
I think the overwhelming majority of this is Steam Deck usage. While that's certainly a feather in the cap for Linux, I don't think really counts toward Linux momentum as we're using the term here. Nobody is going to start investing in polished desktop Linux software because there are a lot of Steam Deck buyers.
> I think the overwhelming majority of this is Steam Deck usage
Please click the link and on the OS tab for a breakdown, as your conjecture is falsifiable[0]
MOST POPULAR PERCENTAGE CHANGE
------------------------------------------------------
Linux 2.27% -0.06%
------------------------------------------------------
"Arch Linux" 64 bit 0.21% -0.02%
Linux Mint 22.1 64 bit 0.14% +0.02%
Ubuntu Core 22 64 bit 0.10% 0.00%
Ubuntu 24.04.2 LTS 64 bit 0.10% 0.00%
"Manjaro Linux" 64 bit 0.06% 0.00%
"EndeavourOS Linux" 64 bit 0.06% 0.00%
Debian GNU/Linux 12 (bookworm) 64 bit 0.05% 0.00%
We do know that SteamOS is Arch based. So yeah, it is the dominant player there. I'm not entirely surprised, but I don't think anyone was.
But important to note, there's only a 0.05 difference between Arch and Mint. It's important to note because
1) Arch is incredibly popular and we can't guarantee all users in the Arch category are SteamOS users
2) Mint is currently the most popular distro[1]
> Nobody is going to start investing in polished desktop Linux software because there are a lot of Steam Deck buyers.
Maybe not, but also polishing of the Linux desktop has happened regardless of this. In fact, it is what drove SteamOS. Please refer to the items on [1] as literally the top 8 distros were developed for this explicit purpose (making Linux more user friendly).
I came back and found the difference. You clicked "Linux Only". But I'm glad you did, because it gives us additional information helping us actually answer the previous question more accurately. Strongly falsifying the earlier conjecture that they were mostly SteamOS. We can see only a third are. 2/3rds of Linux Gamers are NOT using SteamOS (definitely a subset of SteamOS users are also not using a Steam Deck)
"SteamOS Holo" 64 bit 33.78% -0.70%
"Arch Linux" 64 bit 9.45% -0.23%
Freedesktop SDK 24.08 (Flatpak runtime) 64 bit 6.41% +0.15%
Linux Mint 22.1 64 bit 6.20% +0.89%
Ubuntu Core 22 64 bit 4.62% +0.23%
Ubuntu 24.04.2 LTS 64 bit 4.44% +0.26%
"Manjaro Linux" 64 bit 2.61% -0.05%
"EndeavourOS Linux" 64 bit 2.46% +0.06%
Debian GNU/Linux 12 (bookworm) 64 bit 2.27% -0.08%
Pop!_OS 22.04 LTS 64 bit 2.23% +0.02%
Other 25.54% -0.53%
https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/Steam-Hardware-Software-Survey-Welcome-to-Steam?platform=linux
With the number of Steam Decks sold estimated at 3-4 million, and the number of monthly active Steam users being around 130 million, I think it's safe to say that 0.21% does not represent SteamOS install base.
As far as I know, SteamOS doesn't show as Arch, but rather as its own thing
The way to make Linux takeover is get kids using it
To get kids using it needs to do lots of cool shit easily
Windows could play games easily when Linux could not even use a USB mouse
The time is right to make Linux do cool shit easily with local generative models that help iteratively create games
Replace all the desktop legacy with some blank canvas and local models that draw on the canvas. Ship some baked in models to generate shells of games to iterate from, boom.
This is exactly the fear of big SaaS and why VCs outside a key handful are done with it.
Apple Silicon is a glimpse of local compute future. Fanless laptops running models that generate entire coherent universes like Marvel and Star Wars. (Don’t need giant models just dense enough to get 80% and let users “zoom and enhance” with their own input)
Show that potential with local models on Linux and it’s over. Three options then; government demands hardware is locked down to preserve Hollywood/gaming/media, open compute wins, or both sides destroy the world over it.
In an interview with IGN during Covid lockdown Gabe Newell was describing generative AI as an existential threat to content creators. It could be temporary as the next gen grows up with a new normal and doesn’t obsess about a career in digital design or web dev, yt video production. It could end humanity as existential dread settles in for millions stuck in some narrative about their existence that no longer holds economic value.
> The way to make Linux takeover is get kids using it
Agree!
> Windows could play games easily when Linux could not even use a USB mouse
I don't think I've ever had a USB mouse (or wireless mouse or keyboard) issue in the last 15 years.
Games? I'll give you that. But honestly, Steam has really made that almost a non-issue. Good guy steam! (their work has affected more than SteamOS)
> Replace all the desktop legacy with some blank canvas and local models
This seems like the opposite of what you initially argued.
Models as in... LLMs or ML models? This seems like a great way to break things. I'd really encourage you to get these things to try to do what you're saying they should do.
> Apple Silicon is
Where are you going with this?
> Show that potential with local models on Linux and it’s over.
I'm an ML researcher... these models are generally made and deployed on linux systems. Explicitly because they work better there and is easier to deal with.
> In an interview with IGN during Covid lockdown
Serious question: you okay? Did a LLM contribute to your comment? Did a LLM make the whole comment? GPT, can you describe to me Act 4 Scene 5 from Henry V but as told by a Pirate from the deep south? (American south)
Kernel-level anti-cheats. It's pretty much a prerequisite for any sort of competitive multiplayer gaming these days, but also increasingly common even for online coop. And they usually only work on Windows.
KDE has seen plenty of activity related to the Steam Desk, I heard. Valve regularly contribute to Wine, which is used for desktop Windows software. If the entire stack is consistent between the two, how wouldn't it translate to better desktop software? It's the same as how server investment in the kernel benefits the desktop users, only with a much greater intersection.
I think a lot of people feel powerless when going against such big entities. I get this. But I think it is important to remind everyone that you don't need to do everything at once.
Our job often involves breaking down big problems into many little problems. So it should be clear that making little steps makes progress towards solving the big problems. It can be easy to feel like that progress isn't happening and it can be frustrating that it isn't happening fast enough. But our experience should also tell us that it all seems to quickly come together towards the end. There was never a magic leap, it was all the small steps put together.
Linux advocacy often reminds me of a favourite quote from Margaret Mead:
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”
I think it’s very promising, if you believe in the potential of Linux on the desktop, that gaming used to be the standard “Linux doesn’t do what I need, so I stay on Windows” argument. Thanks to a lot of investment and hard work, particularly by Valve and others contributing to software like Wine/Proton, that is no longer the case. Many games work fine on Linux today, even among the big names. Some even have native versions. It mostly seems to be “anti-cheat” measures that are statistically indistinguishable from malware that still cause trouble.
Another potential sticking point for adoption by home users today is that few, if any, of the big streaming services work well on Linux. This also seems to come down at least partly to DRM. A cynic might suggest that this is because Linux will give a more appropriate response if a copy protection system tries to do invasive things that it has no business doing on someone else’s computer. In any case, it’s another significant barrier, but if we could get to the point where you could at least watch HD content like users of other platforms when you’re paying the same subscription fees, it’s another barrier that could fall.
This latter example is, of course, more than a little ironic given the subject of today’s discussion. But then the behaviour that the DRM system is being subverted to protect against by Signal probably wouldn’t fly for more than five minutes on Linux in the first place, so I don’t think Linux not enabling intrusive/abusive DRM is really the problem here…
I agree. I think the problem is it is easier to see the distance we still need to go than the distance we've already covered. It is good to reflect and look back, seeing how far we've come. It's the best thing to motivate continued efforts forward.
> It mostly seems to be “anti-cheat” measures that are statistically indistinguishable from malware that still cause trouble.
This seems to be a big hitch. But we also know that studios will drop these methods (hopefully in favor of ones that actually work without being incredibly invasive) if the userbase pushes back. They can only make these moves because people don't care. Or they care only as far as their mouth, but not to their wallet. Certainly there is addiction here, and that should be accounted for, but it does still warrant push. That's only sufficient as an explanation, rather than an excuse.
This seems like a worldview borne from an era where the PC was _the_ definitive, ubiquitous computing device of choice for the layperson. These days, that crown is taken by the smartphone.
If you need a PC in 2025, you're probably a fair bit more knowledgeable than someone buying one in 2005. You're also almost certainly buying one online, possibly even directly from the manufacturer or builder, which means the seller can simply give you options and doesn't have to worry about competing for store shelf space.
Surely the people who speak of "linux on the desktop" (not me, for the record) are at least in some small sense alluding to being able to have some of the freedoms historically associated with Linux, originating in the GNU movement and all that? The right to study, share, etc.
What I mean is that I would have picked Android as quite a good example of how the technicality of running the Linux kernel under the hood means very little in terms of users being empowered, or anything of the sort.
You are correct. If folks want that "freedom," then these are not the droids they are looking for.
However, folks that want that freedom, are a pretty small segment of the population, heavily represented in this community. Apple is a 3 trillion-dollar company, because most folks aren't like HN members.
iOS is pretty much Apple’s fully bespoke operating system at this point. You might be overestimating how much it actually shares with Unix (it boils down to a few standard libraries and terminal commands and no actual code).
Functionally, iOS and Linux are only about as similar as a penguin and a robotic statue of a penguin.
Well, I'm not sure exactly what's under the hood, but I write Apple software, and I use a lot of the same NSXXX calls that have been in it since the dawn of OSX.
NextStep was a shell over FreeBSD. MacOS X was an evolution of NextStep.
Some time ago, I wrote a network driver for iOS, and used BSD sockets, accessed via standard C. I remember using the BSD manual, to figure out how to use them.
The NS calls behave the same now, as they did, back when OSX was new, and, at that time, MacOS was definitely UINX. iOS is a direct descendant of MacOS.
macOS is literally certified Unix. Apple still shells out for certification of their new releases, although I'm not sure what they're getting out of it given that macOS Server isn't a thing anymore.
iOS is arguably a subset, but whether it's Unix-like or not is a philosophical question depending on how you define the minimal set of features that'd make it one. It's certainly not Unix-like from the end user perspective.
> Microsoft knows this, and they will do everything they can to prevent OEMs from shipping anything other than Windows
You're right and they effectively licensed XP to Asus for free for use on the Eee PC (which originally only shipped with Linux) when it was shaping up to be a hit.
The way that the netbook 'evolutionary branch' went from lean and mean to underspecified bloated windows small laptops is one where I really wonder if MS suffocated something that would have been to their benefit longer term if only they could have put out their own lean OS and an ecosystem of lean software to run on it.
It was at the time mobiles were picking up momentum, and just before tablets arrived on the scene (the ipad launched 2010, the tablet focused Android 3 came out in 2011), and a lot of people migrated away from windows for their personal computing needs. There's also been MS's ultimately failed efforts for their own mobile platform. Besides the established huge momentum of gaming and professional/office usage it's difficult to see why consumers would move to windows, or what MS offers to prevent the momentum slowing and linux slowly chipping away at it.
I worked at a computer shop at the time. Few consumers wanted the Linux versions: they all chose Windows. I'm not sure the license was free, as the Windows machines were more expensive with the same hardware.
So I checked on the Internet Archive; we sold the EEEPC 900 with Linux for €329, and the Windows EEEPC 901 for €409. The Linux had a Celeron M and the Windows an Atom N270, so I guess I misremember them having identical specs.
I assume the Atom is faster(?) The XP machine felt slower though.
Most people just don't care that they're being spied on. Most people don't care about anything actually, they're in a constant state of despair and see no point to anything so they just try to make the best of the time they have.
Adoption is already happening, as it has been for years, but especially now that MS and Apple are producing worse and worse OS/software that treats the people who use it worse and worse. I'm frequently pleasantly surprised by hearing that someone uses a Linux machine with regularity. It used to be a really rare, techie-only kind of thing. Pulling people away from literal decades of complete personal-computing domination with a completely free, near-zero-marketing alternative is a very slow, gradual process. It's great that those dominant vendors are doing their very best to push everyone to the alternatives :)
This is all well and good, but the problem is, I've seen comments word for word like this one back in 2006 - and wrote some of them myself even. Back then it was Vista that was supposed to drive Windows users away, and, indeed, I personally helped some brave folk switch. Some lasted longer than ours but all were eventually back on Windows.
Yeah, for me the big difference is the past year or two people are actually asking me about Linux and wanting my help to try it out because they are sick of Windows and sick of the forced updates. My aunt's external HDD got wiped from a Win10 forced update (no clue why, I didn't investigate in-depth). People are just done with that shit.
Until these vendors break into EDU it’s an uphill battle.
In WA, every school has Microsoft smart boards and laptops running windows. Kids grow up using it and when they buy their own computers they aren’t going to choose a small boutique builder running an unfamiliar OS they won’t know how to use right away.
Apple has a lock on a lot of EDU as well, and the iPhone is so ubiquitous it’s an easy sell to get folk using other products
Those systems look beautiful but it’s a minority of people that will make a large purchase on something like this.
You think kids have brand loyalty to the vendors that scam/muscle/bribe their way into the classroom?
Most of the EDU software is trash, the incentives are all aligned to spend billions on acquiring the contract and close to zero on execution and most of these kids are traumatized from sitting in a classroom with some clueless dope at the front yelling at them to IPad IPad IPad algebra
You can buy a PC with Linux off the shelf in some countries. In practice, it's an open secret that the machines are for people who don't want to pay for a Windows license but will use Windows anyway.
Microsoft knows this, and they will do everything they can to prevent OEMs from shipping anything other than Windows. Apple of course, forget it. Their profit comes from leeching off FOSS and selling it, they would never allow distribution of it directly.