I think Denver has a few other things going for it that simply make it a higher value housing market, namely:
1. Mild weather - dry weather with well defined seasons without
2. Natural recreation - some of the best year-around outdoor recreation in the country
3. More diverse economy - Austin is extremely tech heavy. Anecdotally most people saw dot-com boom hit Austin much harder than 08 crisis. Tech is bleeding right now.
4. Geography - building in Denver is constrained by Rocky mountains. The plains offer endless building but in Texas you can build any direction and topology is very flat.
I think the other thing not mentioned here is that Austin saw a huge influx of home buyers in 2020-2024 - most everyone I met during that time that moved from West Coast bought at the high and left within 2-3 years after realizing they couldn't handle the crumbling infrastructure and hot summers. Many of them have been holding onto these properties and trying to rent. This only put more pressure on another group - those who bought properties specifically for short-term rentals (e.g. Airbnb). Those who did stay are see massive headcount reductions in tech industry. Meanwhile there are many natives who would love to live closer but are stuck with properties purchased in '21-'24 in Round Rock, Georgetown, San Marcos, Taylor, etc.
So IMO this a perfect storm of not just building housing supply (which is great - the best thing the city has managed to do in the past 15 years), but also significant demand correction.
As someone born and raised in Austin and a homeowner within the city - I am ecstatic about decline in rents and home values. Austin became what it is in part because it was affordable.
We have no nearby mountains, hot summers, poor infrastructure, poor politics, a heavily polluted coastline --> there was no reason for it's prices to be as high as they were.
I have been to Austin only once for South by Southwest back in 95. As a musician I loved being in Austin, especially for that event. I do get the differences between there and Denver. I love it here. However it is getting hotter here too. It's 85 today and will be 87-88 Friday, and we are running out of water along with the rest of the Southwest. Who knows what's going to happen or where to go to if it gets real bad?
