If you only look at this data it would be the most reasonable guess. Of course o... | Hacker News

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randomNumber7 3 months ago | parent | context | favorite | on: Artemis II is not safe to fly

If you only look at this data it would be the most reasonable guess.

Of course one should also analyze the technical sytems involved and then it is clear that 0% failure is not reasonable.

ballooney 3 months ago [–]

Bayes rule has existed for nearly 300 years, there is no excuse for ‘only look[ing] at this data’ and that is NEVER a reasonable thing to do.

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