There are studies where 93% of drivers believe they are better than average drivers...

There's no inherent contradiction with a majority of drivers rating themselves above average: each driver is free to prioritize "good driver"-traits differently; e.g. if I value road safety and my neighbour values total travel time, we are probably both objectively better drivers according to our own metrics.

That said, 93% of car drivers are worse than me. Obviously.

The tricky question is: how do you tell when you're actually right vs just doing the same thing Homer was

Not a guarantee of course, but I think if you can't steelman your opponents, have never gone into something with some hypothesis or bias and ultimately proved it wrong/insufficiently supported and accepted that, or wouldn't be willing to specify what evidence would be sufficient for you to change your mind (however unlikely you believe that to be), you're more likely to be Homer.

> Not a guarantee of course, but I think if you can't steelman your opponents

There's no point in steelmanning opponents who would not do the same to you. There isn't enough time in the universe to argue against all of them and all of their gaslighting and logical fallacies.

I think willing to admit one is wrong and maybe thinking for an extra second before opening their mouth to give another opinion would get people 90% towards being right and away from being Homer.

I don't mean you should spend endless amounts of time arguing with people. Lots will just try to waste your time and exhaust you. It's more a hypothetical for when you're thinking about your beliefs/position on your own time.

> There's no point in steelmanning opponents […] There isn't enough time […] to argue against […] gaslighting and logical fallacies.

I think there's a separation in how people are using "steelman". A steelman argument by definition contains no (or a minimal amount of) gaslighting and fallacies. As for the worth of the exercise, it's about personal knowledge seeking. If you're totally confident in your beliefs, than certainly, steelmanning will hold little value.

I feel like there are clear signs, but either people have cognitive blind spots or are just obstinate. For example, you hear people complain that they've been for a bajillion interviews and still don't get hired (hint: the problem is you), or they're always single even though they go on countless dates (hint: the problem is you) or they're overweight and can't lose weight no matter what they try (hint: the problem is you). Maybe an inability to introspect yourself in an objective way? Maybe a deep seated belief that the problem cannot actually be _you_, it must be an external factor, so you seek that. Maybe you're not being gaslit, maybe the ever-present smell of shit really does emanate from under your shoe.