I wouldn't discount the worries outside of tech however. A cheap human laborer that leans on AI to provide their checklist and described actions for tasks is definitely in scope to replace hard won hands on knowledge from experience in industry professionals. You no longer have to watch 30 YouTube videos to learn and distill a task as a layperson in a field involving manual labor.

I rebuilt my house from the studs, did my own electrical and plumbing, etc. This took a significant amount of training and research back in the day. I worked under my father for a decade before making this attempt. My father is a journeyman electrician and carpenter. I think any able bodied human could soon forgo much of that and simply get a breakdown of actions to perform in a particular order and get similar results.

I tried to use gpt for various handy work. While it does help I don't think it can adequately substitute for hard won hands. Maybe next gen if you provide a video stream and the llm can view the exact situation. Even then though I wouldn't discount the difficulty of learning dexterity when you've been a coddled white collar worker your whole life

I wasn't suggesting white collar workers attempt blue collar work. I'm merely saying that cheap day laborers with basic experience won't have to lean on their industry mentorship model (journeyman etc) as much and can complete jobs on their own. On the cheap.

Today's models are insufficient for someone with 0 hands on experience, especially when limited to text modalities. However, I don't doubt the future ones you describe are coming though, if they're not already here.

Is your opinion here grounded in experience from working in that field, or is it speculation?

This question seems a bit of a non sequitur. I worked along side my father in the trades for over a decade (to pay for college, my house, etc) as I've already stated in my parent post. Unless you're asking about something else?