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While value isn't linear, prejudgement of value for allocation of resources is very imperfect.

A lot of stuff that doesn't make the cut is the the stuff that does have value. When you're lowering the bar, remember it's a noisy bar - so a lot more good stuff is going to come through as well.



Yes.. I agree.

.. and that entropy can be where all the ultimate value is. That said... considering the point at hand is the context, it's important to start with the diminishing marginal returns.

To give a simple example... Google and FB do not have "invest able software opportunities" at hand. They've been searching everywhere for nails for their "build software" hammer. They are well resourced and risk tolerant.

The diminishing returns curve for "more software" is steep.

Good stuff coming through often starts with $100m markets becoming $1bn markets. That's not even noise at the scale they're thinking about. Long term, sure. Plausibility range is as wide at it has maybe ever been.

But... systemic value is hard to make.


Most places I've worked have roadmaps, i.e. investable priorities.

If you can burn through lower priority experiments quickly it's great!

They might be working on all of the super high level things they can think of, but there are always more A/B tests, more features, etc. that are just lower priority, and the chaos of scaling up the org to address them all is super linear whereas the return on going down the list is sub linear.

So you end up with an equilibrium. If the cost shifts, just like in econ 101, the output will change.




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