Another reason published CVEs isn't a great metric is that one of the largest contributors to the number of CVEs significantly increasing in the past couple years has been that the Linux kernel now submits almost all bugs as CVEs which wasn't the case before.
Good consideration but I still think there’s an uptick. This is all AI generated as I’m not in a spot to do anything more at the moment but this is a chart of ‘linux kernel’ CVEs rated as high/critical correlated with NVD.
I wouldn't look at the numbers. There used to be a lot of "scam" CVEs before LLMs, that weren't actual vulns. Nowadays its more popular to collect CVEs, and there is a lot of people scanning with LLMs and reporting without checking (like it was in case of cURL). These CVEs are often not verified by anyone.
There probably is more vulnerabilities found, but the amount of CVEs is not a good metric.
Going backwards from 2023, the doubling interval for published CVEs was approximately 4 to 4 1/2 years. Since then it’s approximately two years.
There has definitely been a rapid uptick.