It's worth remembering that, according to SpaceX's own filings, they've spent >$15 billion on the Starship program thus far with more to come. And SpaceX is burning cash still, particularly because Elon Musk bailed out his own bad decisions with Twitter and xAI with SpaceX stock, basically.
Flight 12 was a relative success. Some engines failed to light but that's an unintended good test. Rockets are typically designed such that they can have a certain number of engines fail and still achieve their mission.
At this point, the entire SpaceX project is a bet on telecommunications services, specifically direct-to-satellite handheld Internet. That's the only market that will recoup the program costs.
We don't have exact figures for the current true cost of a Falcon 9 launch factoring in reuse but many think it's somewhere betweenm $10 and $20 million. Well, SpaceX has spent 100 F9 launches on Starship so far and that's how you have to look at it. Say F9 is $20M and Starship once it starts launching Starlink is $10M that's 150-300+ launches just to break even.
You might be tempted to say there are other missions for Starship but there really aren't. Satellites aren't that bug, as evidences by there being ~1 Falcon Heavy launch per year (usually for the military and/or to geostationary orbit AFAICT). You can't economically put multiple payloads in one Starship because they all have different orbital parameters.
F9 is rated for human spaceflight. It's a long road for Starship to be certified for human spaceflight. SpaceX hasn't even begun to test in-orbit refuelling yet. Gases are weird in microgravity.
F9 is the cash cow funding all this and that too might go away if Blue Origin or one of the other wannabes ever gets a reusable launch platform to commercial operation.
There are big launches like interplanetary missions but those are few and far between.
It would be fascinating if what ends up dooming SpaceX is actually Twitter.
> At this point, the entire SpaceX project is a bet on telecommunications services, specifically direct-to-satellite handheld Internet. That's the only market that will recoup the program costs.
There's also a military angle here. I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to look into Musk's history with Michael D. Griffin from the Reagan SDI/'Star Wars' program.
It’s an awkward comparison, but F9 can deliver a payload to orbit at a slightly lower price per kg than a Tomahawk missile can deliver it to a target. Starship would be MUCH cheaper if the economics works out the way that SpaceX would like it to.
Obviously a few hundred kg of payload in orbit are not equivalent to the same payload delivered directly to a target.
You don’t need very many kg delivered to target if it’s plutonium. The SDI program had the idea was that if you parked enough defensive weaponry in orbit then maybe mutually assured destruction wasn’t something you had to worry about. The only problem was that getting all that mass into orbit was prohibitively expensive.
Then the deputy director of the program met a young man named Elon Musk, and the rest is history.
I don’t think plutonium is the right comparison. Plutonium is expensive, and nuclear bombs are neither cheap nor particularly useful for doing things like attacking 10k different targets in some foreign country.
I’m imagining a launcher in a spacecraft that kicks out a bunch of payloads, one at a time, out the back, into orbits with perigee on or before the ground. (An LLM calculates the needed delta-V at under 200m/s, which is likely quite manageable with a small mass driver-style launcher or a very small rocket.) The payloads will lose a bunch of energy to the atmosphere, but all the remaining energy is kinetic energy delivered directly on target, assuming that you can inexpensively aim the thing at a target. Look up “Rods From God” on Wikipedia — you don’t even necessarily need any explosives.
So the question becomes: how economically can one build the guidance systems, avionics packages, and whatever heat shielding is needed to survive reentry?
(Cold War-era ICBMs with MIRV payloads are sort of in this category, but they treated launch vehicle as disposable, which means that the launch would be far more expensive but the reentry system could likely be a bit simpler as the payloads could be launched from a launch vehicle on a non-recoverable orbit. And it appears that Russia has attacked Ukraine with a MIRV-equipped missile with non-nuclear payloads, so there is precedent.)
Near real time fpv drones anywhere on the planet, free of jamming due to starlink is the real game changing capability. What would any military pay for that? Plenty I wager.
Wait a moment. How exactly is Starship supposed to usefully deliver a pile of FPV drones to a hostile area?
Starship itself is highly engineered to survive reentry and can even land anywhere that an appropriately flat surface is available. It will conveniently toast anything hanging out on the landing zone. But it is extremely far from stealthy, it seems likely to be extremely vulnerable both before and after landing (a hole in a cryogenic fuel tank = big boom), and I don’t think any of the design mission profiles involve Starship’s second stage, minus most of its fuel and minus the first stage, taking off again from Earth. And the value proposition isn’t there if you don’t get to reuse it.
A common cheap FPV drone dropped from orbit or from a suborbital ballistic trajectory is a small meteor, not a weapon.
ISTM it would be a better bet to equip an F-35 or a larger UAV to drop a pile of small drones.
Not sure how you made that leap because that would be absurd. The point was that fpv drones enabled with starlink render icbms, mervs, rods from god, etc unnecessary and uneconomical.
> At this point, the entire SpaceX project is a bet on telecommunications services, specifically direct-to-satellite handheld Internet. That's the only market that will recoup the program costs.
I seriously doubt that. Just for example, mining a single asteroid has the potential to flood the market for any number of metals. I don't pretend to know how expensive it would be to achieve that in practice; my point is that there are quite a few different ways to recoup program costs at some handwavey point in the future.
If there were infinite gold bars just sitting on the surface of the moon, it wouldn't be economical to go collect them and bring them back to Earth. No matter how expensive you think any metals are here on Earth, the cost of launching vehicles, rendezvousing with said metals and bringing them back to Earth makes it uneconomical.
An asteroid is much, much further than that but more important than distance is the delta-V required for change its orbit to reach an Earth orbit. So you not only need to get there, which, as discussed, requires in-orbit refuelling with Starship (or any vehicle), but you have to carry all the fuel you need for the orbital burn to bring it back. The rocket equation just kills this immediately.
You really hope you have to get incredibly lucky that an metallic asteroid is on a near-intercept course with Earth that is just shy or going into orbit. The odds for that are, well, astronomical.
If we ever mine for gold in space, I suspect it would be more economical to leave the gold there than to bring it down to earth. Most gold ownership never results in delivery, people just own receipts for gold stored elsewhere.
I’ve always found it amusing that so much effort goes into extracting gold from the Earth when such a substantial amount of it goes right back underground into some vault.
Matt Levine has discussed similar theme for sub surface gold on earth[1]. NatGold is the company mentioned which tokenizes that.
Obviously pre-mined should trade lower than earth mined gold. Price should be something like Earth gold pricing- mining cost - cost to transport back to earth (or location based prcing, we are some time away from space based economics). Basically you will be trading rights for mining for a particular space mine.
xAI is burning through $1 billion a month [1]. With Anthropic as a customer, it's basically an argument that we're losing money on every transaction but we'll make it up in volume.
> That's the only market that will recoup the program costs.
No. If it is just $15B I can think of dozens different usecases ranging from military applications(fast transportation, it is the cheapest ICBM) to asteroid deflection to moon mining to science applications to space datacenter.
Are you seriously thinking $15B is big? Artemis by comparison has spent $93B and has cost of $4B per launch.
Flight 12 was a relative success. Some engines failed to light but that's an unintended good test. Rockets are typically designed such that they can have a certain number of engines fail and still achieve their mission.
At this point, the entire SpaceX project is a bet on telecommunications services, specifically direct-to-satellite handheld Internet. That's the only market that will recoup the program costs.
We don't have exact figures for the current true cost of a Falcon 9 launch factoring in reuse but many think it's somewhere betweenm $10 and $20 million. Well, SpaceX has spent 100 F9 launches on Starship so far and that's how you have to look at it. Say F9 is $20M and Starship once it starts launching Starlink is $10M that's 150-300+ launches just to break even.
You might be tempted to say there are other missions for Starship but there really aren't. Satellites aren't that bug, as evidences by there being ~1 Falcon Heavy launch per year (usually for the military and/or to geostationary orbit AFAICT). You can't economically put multiple payloads in one Starship because they all have different orbital parameters.
F9 is rated for human spaceflight. It's a long road for Starship to be certified for human spaceflight. SpaceX hasn't even begun to test in-orbit refuelling yet. Gases are weird in microgravity.
F9 is the cash cow funding all this and that too might go away if Blue Origin or one of the other wannabes ever gets a reusable launch platform to commercial operation.
There are big launches like interplanetary missions but those are few and far between.
It would be fascinating if what ends up dooming SpaceX is actually Twitter.