Is it really insane? That is less than 200 per day, in a city of 15 million people.. a single gang of 20 thieves could likely manage that! The real question is, how does this compare to other cities of this size and demographics?
I'd say it's a lot higher than this. This is just the reported numbers.
I live in London and I'm fairly careless. Yesterday when I hopped onto a bus a driver told me I was crazy for holding my phone out infront of me and that it would be snatched if I kept that up.
I could list 10 people I know that have had their phone stolen at some point in the last few years. I've also seen it happen several times. It's very common.
200 SNATCHED phones a day is insane number, I seriously doubt in 10 times smaller European cities you will find 20 people per day with someone snatching their phone
Say your network and you is 250 people. (friends, colleague, family, neighbours, community)
Probability (P) of not being chosen[0]: 1-200/9M
Probability of your network (PN) not being chosen[1]: P^250
Probability of your network not being chosen everyday for 1 year: PN^365 = 13%
I'm not very confident with statistics but if I assembled that correctly that means in any given year, you'd only expect 13% odds that no one you care about was a victim of phone snatching crime, That's kind of bleak tbh
[0] realistically the odds are a lot worse and the probability won't be uniformly distributed: people living in Surrey or Chiswick are going to have different odds to someone who lives in Soho or works in Central London. Suddenly the "at risk" population can get pretty small when you think about it because grannies and 2 year olds aren't walking around Warren Street station at peak theft hours with their phone out.
[1] I realise that this doesn't handle replacement but for big population and small subset this should approximate
I would expect a city that's mostly retirement communities to have less snatch-and-run thefts than a city where tourists make up a large part of the population at any given time.
Interestingly, Tokyo has a much larger population than London with a very low crime rate. I can’t find specific numbers on stolen phones (only lost phone statistics are published) but robberies/muggings are 0.04 per 1,000 yearly versus London’s 2.83 per 1,000. Seoul has a similar rate to Tokyo, 0.4 to 0.5.
Also, is there even a single city of London’s size that is mostly retirement communities?
In Beijing robberies are 0.55 per 1,000. In Taipei it’s an unbelievable 0.0036 per 1,000, although general theft is higher at 2.12 (compared to London at 52.9). Are all these countries underreporting?
Singapore is 0.01 per 1,000. Hanoi doesn’t have published statistics but its Numbeo crime index (calculated from surveys) is 33.8 versus London at 55.3.
I think we can stop excusing London’s numbers.
Want a non-Asian country in case Asians are somehow magical beings who don’t do robberies? Ottawa is 0.11 to 0.13 per 1,000. Vancouver is 0.73 per 1,000. Sydney is 0.13 to 0.15 per 1,000. Dubai is 0.03 to 0.045 per 1,000.
London is supposed to be a global city on par with many of these others. So what is going wrong?
It’s hard to get good stats on Cairo, but its crime index is lower than London somehow, despite the higher levels of poverty. Same with Islamabad and Jaipur.
It always shocks me how people like to excuse crime in London. 70000 phones snatched in a year. 3000 stabbings a year.
The phone snatchings are so common that I can name several victims from completely different walks of life. Maybe the most mental incident was when a colleague's phone was snatched then subsequently ditched on the floor cos it was too old to be worth the trouble of fencing...
As a native Londoner I didn't realise how much baggage I carried wrt crime until I moved to Singapore and realised that leaving your front door open, your car unlocked or your phone on a restaurant table aren't crimes you apparently deserve to be immediately punished for.
It's kind of nice knowing that children and the elderly can go about their day without fear of crime or that women can be unsupervised at night without fear of violence. It's actually very liberating being free from the tyranny of crime.
