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prompt: if a family has four boys, would a bayesian conclude that their next child would most likely be a boy?

fable taught me about the beta binomial and large observational studies that came down on both sides of the question about whether per family births are truly binomial. it also told me about countries like the uk and uae that are inching towards national genetic registries that might answer such questions definitively in time. as well as the efforts in Cyprus in this 80s to reduce beta thalassemia through voluntary testing of couples pre marriage.



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