Interestingly, another thing TV has done to adapt is create content that expires very quickly. Reality shows like American Idol and Big Brother are unlikely to end up downloaded, because they're not worth watching if you don't watch them right away.
This is probably a huge component in why there are so many more reality shows these days.
Breaking the broadcast model also won't work for those, because their value is precisely in the fact that a lot of people watch them, so that they become gossip points. I know some people who watch reality shows only because they know that's what will be discussed around the water fountain the next day, and so they want to be sure to be "in".
I agree that that's a pretty small niche to fit all of today's TV industry, though.
Actually, I wanted to refute your argument with a data point.
American Idol is the most DVR'd show in history. Even tho part of the "process" is to watch and TXT your vote (for a fee), it turns out many people are passively watching the show. They DVR it, watch it, and wait it out till next week.
Essentially, this is the first evidence of internet lurking crossing over to Reality TV contests.
But otherwise, you're completely right. TV is watercooler talk.
This is probably a huge component in why there are so many more reality shows these days.
Breaking the broadcast model also won't work for those, because their value is precisely in the fact that a lot of people watch them, so that they become gossip points. I know some people who watch reality shows only because they know that's what will be discussed around the water fountain the next day, and so they want to be sure to be "in".
I agree that that's a pretty small niche to fit all of today's TV industry, though.