I don't need hard data. To me it's common sense. Rare is the company making $12B per annum. For example, The Coca-Cola Company made $9B in 2012. Even rarer is an established company with a single idea that suddenly takes them to that level of prosperity. I'd say so rare as to be nonexistent.
However, it's very common for already successful people to think all their ideas are good. Wouldn't you be biased towards your own greatness if you were named 2009 Nerd of the Year by GQ magazine, one of the Most Influential People in The World by TIME, etc?
When you've been told by the world that you're brilliant, it's easy to be seduced by that then go on further to make a horse's ass out of yourself.
Any data to base this assumption on?
Maybe it won't be 10%... but even 1%, 4%, 6% are a solid revenue stream with a user base the size of Facebook's.