I just realized what was bugging me about this article. It points out that the empirical support for 10x claims is shoddy. That's fair enough. But then it switches to making a bunch of claims that have no empirical support: 10x is a myth, it's pernicious, it may lead to drug abuse, etc.
So which is it? If we're going to hold 10x up to the standards of rigorous research and conclude that it's bullshit, then by the same logic the rest of the article must be even more bullshit. (At least 10x has some experiments behind it.) By that standard, the only legitimate thing any of us can say on the subject is "we don't know".
But if on the other hand we're going to grant some validity to the folklore, then the most likely explanation for the persistence of 10x claims among respected software veterans is that it's grounded in reality, even though it's silly to take "10x" literally. (What the hell is "x"?)
Well said. Without objective evidence, we should be open to the possibility of this being true or false.
However, as various people commented here, and I can attest as well, there are engineers who are orders of magnitude better than others. It's plainly obvious when you meet them and work with them for enough time to see.
So the interesting thing is why some people disbelieve their existence. If they haven't met such engineers, that is fine - they should be skeptical until they see evidence. But it is irrational for them to discount the eyewitness evidence of others.
So the really interesting issue here is why some people, like the article, want to deny the existence of such engineers. Are they threatened by them or something along those lines? I'm not sure.
(And of course "10x" is meaningless literally, etc. etc. But programming is a human activity, and we can measure our fellow humans despite how complex we are; for example we can say that some authors of fiction are hugely better than the average, such a thing is not even debatable.)
So which is it? If we're going to hold 10x up to the standards of rigorous research and conclude that it's bullshit, then by the same logic the rest of the article must be even more bullshit. (At least 10x has some experiments behind it.) By that standard, the only legitimate thing any of us can say on the subject is "we don't know".
But if on the other hand we're going to grant some validity to the folklore, then the most likely explanation for the persistence of 10x claims among respected software veterans is that it's grounded in reality, even though it's silly to take "10x" literally. (What the hell is "x"?)