Spot on. I think it's important to mention the context of Taleb's philosophy. You have to keep in mind that in certain jobs, like trading, it is fairly plausible that successful traders are plain lucky because all traders eventually blow up. In the startup world, this analogy doesn't hold for a number of reasons. If you are genuinely skilled, you will succeed. Perhaps not on the first try, but you will succeed eventually.
Some skilled people succeed, therefore all skilled people succeed eventually?
Alternatively, it's a tautological statement that defines "genuinely skilled" people as those who succeeded, therefore unsuccessful people must not be skilled.
