No need for references. Probability was started by a bunch of bored french aristocrats who wanted to understand risk and uncertainty. Read what they wrote. They're the original thinkers.
Last but not least: in the late 1990s, Lehman Brothers had a trading desk dedicated solely to extremely unlikely events. That was before the so-called "black swan" theory came along. They made money only once. On 9/11.
Taleb's good ideas are not original, and his original ideas are no good.
To be fair, the work of Pascal and the Chevalier de Mere does not give much insight on how a water leak may turn into a mudslide. Whatever you may think of Taleb, his work is more of a popularization of catastrophe theory than it is basic probability. He even says as much in his writings.
Last but not least: in the late 1990s, Lehman Brothers had a trading desk dedicated solely to extremely unlikely events. That was before the so-called "black swan" theory came along. They made money only once. On 9/11.
Taleb's good ideas are not original, and his original ideas are no good.