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>That's like saying that we should randomly start drilling holes in the ground because sometimes we will strike oil.

Unless you have better tools for locating the oil, that's not a bad strategy.



I would argue that if you didn't have better tools for locating oil or determining viable research areas you shouldn't be digging/funding it in the first place because unless you have a high probability of finding something (and we've left the times of early science when there was a bunch of low hanging fruit) the cost of failed attempts will outweigh the benefits of the success stories.




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